By Charlie Elliott
The Champions Cup enters its final round of fixtures in the pool stage over the course of the weekend.
With plenty still at stake, here are all the permutations of what could still happen.
The top two teams of each group will get a home tie in the round of 16, while third and fourth will play away.
Fifth will qualify for the Challenge Cup and bottom of the group gets knocked out completely.
The draw for the next round is split into four positions, meaning that the team with the highest amount of points out of the first-placed teams will play the team with the lowest amount out of fourth-placed teams, with the process being the same for second and third-placed teams.
Pool 1
Exeter Chiefs are currently bottom with zero points and a –113 point difference and play fellow zero-pointers Ulster in the final game.
The winner of this will qualify for the Challenge Cup and if it is a draw, the URC side will get fifth place due to a higher points differential.
Both could technically still qualify in fourth place, with Sharks on five points, although the South Africans have a –33 difference compared to the –89 of Ulster, meaning a huge swing needs to occur and a bonus point would be enough for Sharks to guarantee progression.
With Sharks playing high-flyers Bordeaux Begles away, a big defeat could happen for them.
Above them, Leicester Tigers are comfortably in third with 11 points and should they beat Toulouse away, they would break into the top two places and secure a home draw.
A Bordeaux win guarantees them top, but anything but, and Toulouse could sneak in and claim first place with only one point separating them.
Pool 2
This pool is much tighter, with the bottom two places belonging to Bristol Bears and Clermont Auvergne, who play each other in France tomorrow.
Both are on five points and with Bath and Benetton on seven each and playing the two teams currently leading the way, a win should be enough to get either team through.
Should La Rochelle lose away to Benetton, the Italians would leapfrog their Top 14 opponents and would secure a home draw, unless Bath beat Leinster away.
With the English team having a better PD, they would finish above Benetton.
Leinster are guaranteed to qualify in the top two, but should they lose and La Rochelle win, they would finish in second place. Two points separate them, and the Irish side have a better PD.
Pool 3
This is the tightest pool at the top end.
Northampton Saints currently top the table with 11 points, with Munster and Saracens both on ten.
Castres follow close by on nine points, with Stade Francais and Bulls further out with only five and zero points respectively.
Saints host Munster at Franklin Gardens, with the winner guaranteeing a top-two place, although they may not finish first depending on other results.
Both Saints and Munster have a PD of 29, with third-placed Saracens having 28 and Castres 11.
The StoneX Stadium will see Saracens and Castres face off, the winner of which is also guaranteed a top-two place.
Stade Francais need a big points differential swing and ideally, a bonus point win to give themselves any hope of top four, with the Bulls hosting them tomorrow in Pretoria.
Should the South Africans win by 22 points and with a bonus, they would finish fifth and resign Stade to no more continental rugby for the rest of the season.
Pool 4
Toulon and Glasgow Warriors lead the way comfortably, with both having already secured a top two spot with 13 and 12 points.
The other four teams are separated by only one point, with Harlequins, Stormers and Sale Sharks on five, and Racing 92 on four.
Both leading teams head to England, with Toulon going to Sale and Warriors making the trip to The Stoop to play Quins.
This means that Racing and Stormers are head-to-head at the Paris La Defense Arena.
Out of the teams on five points, Quins have the best PD with a total of 14, with Stormers and the Sharks lagging behind on –7 and –37.
It is all to play for and every team in the bottom four is as likely to qualify as they are to drop down into the Challenge Cup.
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