Six Nations Preview – Time for Scotland to make that leap against Ireland

By Paul Rees

Scotland v Ireland

Today. Kick-off 3pm. Murrayfield

It is tempting to pitch Scotland’s clash with Ireland at Murrayfield today as the most significant in the seven years Gregor Townsend has been head coach.

They have grown gradually in that time, even though two World Cup campaigns have ended with an early flight home, and can now claim to be the best of the rest.

The top four, South Africa, Ireland, New Zealand and France, are some way ahead of the chasing pack. Scotland are their nearest challengers, ahead of Argentina, England and Australia with Italy and Wales some way back.

For Scotland, who have never won the Six Nations or reached a World Cup final, to make the leap they will need find a way of breaking down the meanest defences.

In last season’s Six Nations, they scored a total of 10 tries against Wales, England and Italy, but only one against France and against Ireland.

They have drawn a blank in each of their last two meetings with South Africa and while they have managed four in their last three encounters with Ireland, two came at the end of the 2023 World Cup group match when they were 36-0 down.

They need to create when it matters, a task made more difficult with the absence of Sione Tuipulotu, and for all Bundee Aki warning his Ireland team-mates that if anyone switches off today Scotland and their outside-half Finn Russell will take them into the gutters, the champions will have full confidence in their defence.

Running hot: Tom Jordan starts at inside centre for Scotland today

PICTURE: Getty Images

Ireland Rut

Scotland have lost their last 10 matches against Ireland, they have suffered nine defeats in a row against South Africa and have yet to defeat New Zealand in 32 attempts. Their record against France, who stirred at the start of the decade after a long slumber, is not as bad, three defeats in the last four.

Where Scotland have improved significantly under Townsend is at forward where they are now more physical and durable.

Much has been made of the backs they are in line to supply to the Lions, but a number of their ball winners should also make the trip.

As last November’s defeat to South Africa again showed, it is not opportunities Scotland lack when they face the top four: they do not take enough of them and for all the pressure they exerted on the World Cup holders three months ago, their return was five Russell penalties.

Two years ago against Ireland at Murrayfield, an early Huw Jones try was their only score in a match that was closely fought in the first half.

In 2021, Scotland took the lead only to slump 14 points down before rallying when Jones came off the bench only to be undone by a late Johnny Sexton penalty.

Last Win

There are four survivors from Scotland’s last victory over Ireland: Jones, Russell, Zander Fagerson and Jonny Gray.

Jones had won his first cap the previous year and has since developed into one of the game’s leading outside centres.

He scored a hat-trick of tries against Italy last weekend in a match Scotland bossed without ever really controlling.

He is a player who tests the best to the maximum but against a defence as organised as Ireland’s, they need maximum buy-in from Blair Kinghorn, Duhan van der Merwe and Darcy Graham, not to mention timing and accuracy from Russell.

Ireland have to find a way against Scotland, the hallmark of a top four side. To break in, Scotland have to complement their physical prowess with mental toughness and Bristol-bound Tom Jordan’s inclusion at inside centre is a statement of intent.

Another defeat for what is now an experienced side and where would they go from there? This has to be their time.

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