Premiership Final Round Permutations: Play-off spot out of Saracens’ hands

The Premiership‘s last game of the regular season has arrived, with all to play for. 

Bath may have secured top spot already, but below them, every place down to eighth is still undecided. 

As the top four all qualify for the play-offs, this means that Sale Sharks and Bristol Bears are at risk of losing their status in the post-season, and Leicester Tigers could miss out on a home semi-final. 

Every game has the same kick-off time on Super Saturday, so there are sure to be plenty of changes as the afternoon goes on. 

Here are the permutations of what different results could mean for the top four race. 

Home Semi-Finalists 

Leicester Tigers currently occupy second and are two points above Sale and three points above Bristol.  

This means that all they have to do is win their final game of the season, a home tie against Newcastle Falcons, to secure the home semi. 

Given Falcons’ struggles this campaign, it isn’t the biggest ask, and they will be massively backing themselves to come out on top. 

If they were to lose, even with the bonus points, and Sale wins away against Exeter Chiefs, Alex Sanderson’s side would finish in second place and get a valuable home semi. 

Bears could hypothetically finish above both, too, but need to get four points more than Tigers and two more than Sale, given their inferior points difference to the two. 

Top Four Race 

Only three points separate Sale in third and Saracens in sixth, meaning that four teams can get into the play-offs, but only two spots are left. 

Bristol and Gloucester both have home games against Harlequins and Northampton Saints, which they will be expecting to win, given that their opponents don’t have much to play for. 

For Saracens, they host league leaders Bath at the StoneX Stadium, and while Johann van Graan’s side have been head and shoulders above the rest this season, they may look to rotate and rest a few key players going into the play-offs. 

Given that their status is sealed, you would expect Bath not to go all guns blazing, but they may want to keep their momentum going into the post-season. 

Sale head to Sandy Park to play a lowly Exeter side that have largely underperformed this season.

However, Chiefs will be buoyed by the return of Immanuel Feyi-Waboso from injury and will look to get a positive result in their last home game of the season. 

Points needed for Top Four 

If Sale and Bristol win their games, then they guarantee their spots as third and fourth in the league, with Sarries and Gloucester unable to catch up. 

The Cherry and Whites have a far superior points difference to Bristol, meaning that if they win and Bristol lose, then even two losing bonus points wouldn’t be enough for the Bears and George Skivington’s side would sneak into the top four. 

Saracens have the same prerogative as Gloucester, but given their inferior points difference to them, would need to better their result points-wise too. 

Elsewhere 

Despite having less jeopardy than a potential play-off spot, Harlequins can go up to fifth if they were to win with a bonus-point at Ashton Gate and both Gloucester and Sarries don’t get any points. 

Saints can reach seventh if they get a win and a bonus point, and Quins fail to get any points. 

Below them, Chiefs and Falcons already have their table positions firmly secured. 

By Charlie Elliott

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