Jeremy Guscott: Bath need to ensure they find fifth gear

By Jeremy Guscott – Outspoken and unmissable… every week

Since Bath managed to finish in first place early and qualify for the playoffs with a home semi-final, the only nagging doubt in my mind is if it leads to them playing Bristol Bears, if they finish fourth.

It doesn’t stem from analytics as much as reading the way that Bath had no answer to Bristol’s all-out attacking strategy at times during their two league games this season.

Bath have lost only three times this season in the Premiership, with Bristol inflicting two losses, and Northampton the other, when they lost by a point at Franklin’s Gardens in round 10.

The first Bristol success was early in the new year at The Rec, where they beat a strong Bath line-up 36-26, and it was followed by a second when they beat an understrength Bath side 36-14 at the Principality Stadium a fortnight ago.

Outsmarting

What was done to Bristol at Ashton Gate by Sale (38-0), and then Leicester (36-19) shows that shutting them down is do-able, and that it is all about attack versus defence, and Bath outsmarting Bristol’s attacking game-plan.

Sport is psychological in so many ways, and the fact that Bristol have won at Bath already this season will make them believe they can do it again.

It’s a bit like water finding its way through a crack and forcing its way from being a trickle to a full force flow.

The main permutation for any other club that secures the fourth play-off place – which is also a possible outcome for Sale – is that they haven’t won at Bath recently.

This season Bath have beaten Sale 40-13 at The Rec and then claimed a further 32-23 victory away at the Salford Community Stadium – although Sale were without George Ford for both matches.

There will also be the memory for Sale of a 31-23 semi-final play-off loss last year in which Bath were eventually clear home winners.

I could see a powerful Sale pack challenging Bath up front, but not decisively, and with Ford back at fly-half and a strong midfield, as well as a back three including Tom Roebuck and Joe Carpenter, it looks pretty evenly matched.

Humble

But to beat Bath requires an all-in attacking game, like Bristol’s, rather than one which is strong in all departments, but doesn’t bring it all together to apply non-stop attacking pressure.

Pat Lam has got Bristol firing so well in attack that their support and running lines simply overrun the defence, whereas Sale don’t pose those threats in the same way.

If you are looking for consistent power game, Sale have it, but Bath are solid, plus they have shown they can win arm wrestles against clubs like Sale and Leicester.

I don’t think Bath are going to be beaten up front comprehensively by any Premiership team, so their opponents will have to bring something else in order to knock them over.

Another factor is that this Bath side is humble, rather than arrogant, and because they also play good rugby, and are not getting ahead of themselves, they are a hard team to get stuck into.

The Champions Cup didn’t go so well for Bath, with the low points coming in the losses to La Rochelle, Leinster and Benetton, but since then they have won consistently in the league despite not always being right at the top of their game.

Individual contributions

So far, they have backed up a promising season last year with a better one.

Sometimes they have been amazingly good, and what’s interesting is how much of a squad effort it’s been.

Overall, although there have been some very important individual contributions, with Finn Russell and Thomas du Toit setting the tone, it has been about all parts of the team firing together, rather than one area of strength pulling the rest through.

Credit must also go to Johann van Graan for the way the head coach has rotated the squad well, and by also encouraging competition for places, kept it fresh and vibrant.

However, Bristol against Bath always has edge because of the West Country rivalry, and that brings more unpredictability into the picture.

I see Bristol as a potential bogey team for Bath, so if I had a choice, it would be to play Sale in the semi-final.

But Bristol looks more likely – and in a playoff against them, Bath’s defence will have to be on song for the full 80 minutes, because if there are any lapses, Bristol will find a way to punish them.

Fifth gear

In a way, Bristol are a bit like Ireland, because if you can squeeze them and stop them enough so that they have to chase a game, and are under pressure, they start questioning their attacking system.

This is because changing it is really difficult when it’s all attack, attack, attack.

It means a pattern without much variation, which, if it doesn’t work, can leave you struggling for alternatives.

Any play-off game involving the two of them is going to be a huge battle, and one thing for certain is that Bath cannot afford a repeat of their first league game against Bristol this season, when they were four tries to one down after 40 minutes.

I have talked about Bath finding the fifth gear and slipping in and out of it this season.

It is a low error count that takes you closest to the perfect game.

When teams are clinical in their execution, they become unstoppable, and the opposition tap-out.

Bath are not there yet, but there are signs, as in the second half against Leicester, that they have got the extra gear.

Part of it is the strength of the bench, because there is usually an increase in intensity.

Upsets

It’s hard to see there being any upsets in the final round of the Premiership, with most of the clubs in with a chance of finishing in the top four playing teams who have nothing at stake.

For example, I suspect Harlequins will be on holiday when they take on Bristol, and you can’t see Leicester losing at home to Newcastle.

It might be a bit trickier for Sale at Exeter if Rob Baxter gets his team pumped-up to end a low season on a high, giving Gloucester (home to Northampton) and Saracens (home to Bath) a sniff of finishing fourth – but Alex Sanderson is a great planner as a coach, and it should be a Sale away win.

As for Bath, anyone playing for a team that either wins a final, or finishes second, has got to have players in the England reckoning.

England will need a strong team to do well in Argentina this summer, and all Bath’s English-qualified players have put their hands up on the basis of this season.

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