July Is Here and the Springboks Have a Point to Prove in the Nations Championship

South Africa put a frightening 80 points past the Barbarians on the 20th June, 12 tries, 80-31 at Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium. It was the warm-up act before what promises to be the most consequential July international window in years. 

The inaugural Nations Championship begins on 4 July with England at Ellis Park, followed by Scotland at Loftus Versfeld on 11 July and Wales at Kings Park in Durban a week later. Three tests in three weeks, all at home, all counting for the new competition standings.

On current form, the Boks will win all three. Rassie Erasmus has an embarrassment of forward depth, Handre Pollard is back and kicking well after admitting a poor performance against Glasgow, and the home venues give South Africa the altitude advantage that visiting sides consistently underestimate. The top 10 South African betting sites all have South Africa as clear favourites for all three fixtures, which reflects the reality of the task facing Borthwick’s squad.

England at Ellis Park on 4 July

England arrive without Maro Itoje, who has been rested after a year that included the Lions series win in Australia, the autumn internationals, and the Six Nations. Jamie George takes the captaincy, five uncapped players have been included, and Borthwick has framed the tour as a development opportunity alongside a genuine competitive challenge.

The problem is that Ellis Park is not a venue for development. The altitude in Johannesburg sits at 1,753 metres. England’s pack will be working harder than they realise just to maintain intensity across 80 minutes. South Africa won the last meeting between the sides 29-20 at Twickenham in November 2024, when England had their full squad available. George is an experienced captain and the squad is not without quality, but losing Itoje against this Springbok front row is a significant deficit to absorb.

That said, England have improved considerably under Borthwick and the inclusion of Noah Caluari alongside Tommy Freeman and Immanuel Feyi-Waboso gives them genuine pace in the back three. If England can keep South Africa’s lineout under pressure and limit the Bomb Squad’s impact off the bench, a competitive 80 minutes is not out of the question. Winning it at Ellis Park without Itoje stretches credibility.

Scotland at Loftus Versfeld on 11 July

Scotland have never won on South African soil, losing all seven previous attempts. Their last visit to Loftus was in 1994. Scotland have improved markedly under Gregor Townsend, and the squad has genuine quality across the park, but The South African’s fixture preview for the July window notes that South Africa have won the last nine meetings between the two nations, stretching back to a 21-17 defeat at Murrayfield in 2010. Loftus at altitude is as difficult an assignment as Ellis Park. Scotland will need to produce something historically unprecedented to break that sequence.

Wales at Kings Park on 18 July

Wales are the most straightforward assessment. South Africa beat them 73-0 in Cardiff last November, which remains one of the most one-sided results in recent Test history. Steve Tandy’s side showed signs of genuine improvement in the 2026 Six Nations and will not be as passive as they were in that Cardiff calamity, but the jump required from losing by 73 in your own backyard to being competitive in Durban is enormous.

Kings Park is the most sea-level of the three venues, which removes South Africa’s altitude advantage and plays into a Wales side that will try to make the game physical and attritional. The 2022 result in Bloemfontein, when Wales won 13-12 to claim a historic victory on South African soil despite losing the series 2-1, shows the Boks are not immune to an upset at home. That Wales side was considerably stronger than the current one.

All Three Are Winnable but England Might Not Be Comfortable

South Africa should win the July series 3-0. The Nations Championship standings will likely reflect that, and Erasmus will be managing his rugby squad with one eye on the All Blacks tour that follows in August, which is the real test of where this Springbok side sits in 2026.

England on 4 July is the fixture to watch most closely. A depleted visiting side, an iconic venue, and a world champion home team that just put 80 on the Barbarians. The standout question is not whether South Africa win, but by how much, and which of these visiting squads manages to make a genuine contest of it.