Wales came into this Six Nations tournament as the fourth favourites, ahead of only Scotland and whipping boys Italy. Fast forward a few weeks, and the Dragons are just off the back of winning a triple crown, with only the punch-bag Italians and the Covid-sticken French standing in their way of Grand Slam Glory.
Why then, are most of the betting sites that you can find in this bookmaker review offering generous odds on a Welsh Grand Slam?
No Grand Slam Winner is still the favoured outcome, with the majority of bookies offering odds of around 1.9 on neither Wales nor France going unbeaten. The Welsh Grand Slam is priced at 3.4 with Bet365, which seems a little generous given the circumstances, which we'll take a look at below. The increasingly-unlikely looking chance of a French Grand Slam isn't too far behind, with most bookies offering odds of 4 or thereabouts.
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Why Does a Welsh Grand Slam Look Likely?
What makes the odds of 3.4 on a Welsh Grand Slam seem so generous? There are a couple of reasons – mainly that Wales should beat Italy easily and the French camp is in the midst of Covid-19 turmoil. Though it looks unlikely, there is still a possibility that the postponement of France's game against Scotland to March 26 could be changed to a walkover victory for the Scots. Additionally, there is still a very slight prospect of the French being pulled from the tournament altogether – by their own government no less!
If the latter of the aforementioned were to come true, a walkover victory would put the Welsh Grand Slam in something of a grey area with the bookies. We've already seen such problems in the post-pandemic era, with tennis matches and SPFL football default wins north of the border. We therefore recommend checking the T&Cs of your chosen bookmaker should you choose to back a Welsh Grand Slam.
Are the French Likely to Get Pulled from the Tournament?
The possibility of the French team getting pulled by their own government had looked to be a very realistic possibility. However Fabien Galthie, the French Coach, was cleared of any wrongdoing on Tuesday morning, despite leaving his team's bubble to go and watch his son's rugby game, which was thought to cause the Covid-19 outbreak in the camp. Additionally, a date has now been set for the postponed France vs Scotland clash in Paris – March 26 – so it does seem like walkover victories won't be handed out.
This is both good and bad for a potential bet on the Welsh Grand Slam. Good, because it means that there won't be any issue with the bookmaker's T&Cs regarding walkover victories' inclusions in a Grand Slam. Bad, because it does mean the Welsh will have the tough task of actually beating the French in Paris on March 20 – the last ‘official' day of the tournament.
Can Wales Beat France if the Game Goes Ahead?
If you'd asked any rugby fan, player, or pundit this question back in January, the answer would most likely have been a resounding “probably not”. On paper, the French are a better side man for man than the Welsh. However, while the French have been massively disrupted by this Covid crisis, the Welsh have had all the luck, and ridden it well to claim the triple crown – especially given referee Pascal Gauzere acknowledged his errors in the Wales – England match.
Even though it looks likely that the French won't be pulled from the tournament, or have to forfeit any of their three remaining games, the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak will most-definitely have a negative effect on the French camp. In addition to the impact of the illness itself, the French now have to play three weekends on the trot this month, with the Wales game falling in the middle of that run.
Will We See a Second Wales Grand Slam in Two Years?
We think yes, although the manner in which it'll be achieved will be very different from the dominating performances of 2019. However it gets over the line, we certainly think it's worth a punt!
