Nick Cain picks his 2013 Lions tour party with some surprising ins and outs

No Brian O'Driscoll. No Chris Robshaw. Neither men make my 2013 Lions tour party for the straightforward reason that others are better equipped to help them beat Australia. What's more, Test rugby, and Lions tours in particular, are no places for sentiment, wishful-thinking, nor political horse-trading, because all those issues have played a major part in the fact that the most famous touring side of all has been victorious in just four series out of 17, with one drawn, since the Second World War.
Most rugby careers do not have fairy tale endings, and, while it is never easy to leave behind a player like O'Driscoll – who has achieved legendary status with his brilliance on numerous occasions for the Lions, Ireland and Leinster over the last 14 years – it is time for the Lions to move on.
While there was a brief cameo of BOD magic with the offload out of the tackle to put Simon Zebo over against Wales, the remaining four games suggested that while, at 34, he is still an effective auxiliary flanker, he no longer has the pace to threaten the line as he did in his pomp. Overall, the Irish attack was blunt, and the longer the tournament went on, the more O'Driscoll struggled to make headway – and the frustration boiled over against Italy, when his stamp on Simone Favaro resulted in a three-week ban.
It is a thankless call for Warren Gatland to make, and, ultimately, I expect the Lions coach to pick both O'Driscoll and Robshaw. However, he does have room for manoeuvre because he knows that O'Driscoll expects to be a Test Lion on what would be his fourth tour, or not to be one at all. In my view, the Irish No.13's dipping form, his increased susceptibility to injury, and the lack of any assurance that he would be on the team sheet for the first Test in Brisbane, rules him out of not just the captaincy, but the tour.

Robshaw's omission is another tough call. Before his team were smashed in Cardiff last weekend the England captain had been a picture of consistency, the embodiment of rugby's work ethic, with his non-stop involvement in each of the four wins leading to the Grand illusion. Whether tackling, tidying or carrying, Robshaw was ever-present, and, while he is efficient rather than spectacular in those duties, even when the wheels came off at the Millennium Stadium he ran himself into the ground.
The problem for Robshaw was that, for all the effort, he was unable to make any impact on the Welsh, or to direct the disruption of their dominant forward platform. With the Welsh raising the second-half tempo he was left trailing in six-and-half territory as Justin Tipuric gave a spectacular demonstration of why true No.7s are so valuable, with his pace and linking ability.
Gatland has already made clear his preference for speedy No.7s in fast Australian conditions, and with Sam Warburton also effective as a marauding flanker against England, and Scotland's Ross Rennie just returned from injury, Robshaw's openside avenue looks closed. That leaves blindside as his only way into the tour party – and, unfortunately, it is a position in which the competition is red-hot, with Kelly Brown not making the long list despite a good Six Nations.
Tom Wood, Sean O'Brien, Tom Croft, Ryan Jones, and Dan Lydiate – who started playing again this weekend for the Dragons – are all in the No.6 mix, with Wood and Ryan Jones emerging from the Six Nations with the most credit. However, a 2009 Test Lion like Croft has already proved his lineout pedigree, and against a lineout orientated side like Australia, that jumping ability, allied to tremendous pace, could tip the balance in his favour.
Nor can O'Brien's carrying power be discarded, unless the Lions head coach has decided he already has enough tanks elsewhere. With Lydiate's keynote contribution to the 2012 Wales Grand Slam also establishing him as a firm favourite of Gatland's, Robshaw is in selectorial no-man's land.
‘To the victors, the spoils', sums up my selection. This 2013 Lions squad is based squarely on the Welsh outfit which clinched back-to-back Six Nations titles last weekend – and deservedly so.
Wales proved to be the most complete squad in the Six Nations by some way, with a powerful front five, a dynamic back row, and a backline with the most physical scrum-half in the world in Mike Phillips, and two giant wingers, in George North and Alex Cuthbert, which no defence will want coming at them.
The way Wales overpowered and then finished off England was sobering, not just because it was so comprehensive, but also because – unlike against New Zealand – Robshaw's side found no way to hurt the Welsh. Ultimately, England flattered to deceive, falling away badly in their last two games, with the faltering display against Italy a harbinger of the rout to follow in Cardiff.
The forward balance therefore leans heavily towards the Welsh pack, with the proviso that there is still time for others, especially those coming back from injury or playing in France, to stake their claim.
Tighthead Adam Jones is the first name on the squad sheet, and the 2009 Lions anchor is joined by every Welsh forward who started against England. The other tighthead is Dan Cole, although the Leicester man has some distance to travel before he is in the same league as Jones the hair-bear.

My first choice loosehead is Andrew Sheridan, another Test Lion. Gatland and scrum coach Graham Rowntree wasted Sheridan's power in the first two Tests in South Africa four years ago, before he showed them what they were missing in the third Test victory. Sheridan is a pulverising scrummager, who has also raised his game in the loose for Toulon. Hopefully, he will be used to batter and bend Australia from the outset, before more mobile carrier-props like Cian Healy and Gethin Jenkins are brought on to press home the advantage.
A front row of Sheridan, heavy-duty Ospreys hooker Richard Hibbard, and Jones should be enough to give the Aussie scrummaging coach, Andrew Blades, the cold sweats. With the dynamism of Healy and the savvy of Jenkins, who can cover both sides of the scrum, it is a formidable unit. Add to that a No.2 with the flanker-like speed and drive of Ken Owens, and a seasoned campaigner like Rory Best, and you should have the best of all front-row worlds.
The locks include three who are line-out leaders – Ian Evans, Alun Wyn Jones and Paul O'Connell – with Richie Gray and Joe Launchbury providing the athleticism to worry the Wallabies. Should O'Connell, who recently returned from a back operation, fail to get back to his best, then another veteran, Clermont's evergreen Nathan Hines, 36, could be asked to do a Simon Shaw.
The outstanding candidate at No.8 is Toby Falatau, who combines dynamism and stamina, with a tussle between a proven but out of sorts Jamie Heaslip and Ben Morgan, yet to recover from an ankle injury sustained against Scotland, for the second slot. Unless Morgan can mount a mighty late charge, the Irishman will not be bumped.

The back-up to Phillips at scrum-half is Ben Youngs, who has the pace to match Will Genia, while Danny Care edges out Greig Laidlaw. Although the Scot is a goal-kicker who also provides cover at fly-half, he does not have the speed or strength of the Harlequins No.9 around the fringes.
Jonny Sexton has enough credit in the bank to remain the first choice fly-half, and Owen Farrell should be on a mission to add an attacking flourish to his goalkicking and defensive skills. However, if they should slip, Jonny Wilkinson is as sure-footed as ever for Toulon, and Dan Biggar also took a big step forward against England.
Jamie Roberts is in pole position to retain the Test shirt at inside centre, while Billy Twelvetrees is a good foil because he brings not only size and speed, but a kicking game. The outside centres are Manu Tuilagi and Jonathan Davies, a duo who are muscular and menacingly elusive, with James Hook, a gifted play-maker who can cover 10, 12, 13 and 15, taking the fifth midfield place.
At wing North and Cuthbert have made an unanswerable case with their size, speed and opportunism, while Scotland's Flying Dutchman, Tim Visser, comes from the same mould. Christian Wade goes as an uncapped bolter because his fast-twitch acceleration and balance is the closest I've seen to Jason Robinson. It could be hit or miss, but if Wade gets into his stride on the hard grounds it will be spectacular.
The last wing is Rob Kearney. He had a memorable Test series at full-back in 2009, when he was immaculate under the high ball, and although he had a mixed Six Nations he is a gifted footballer who has played on the wing. If Tommy Bowe recovers quickly enough from injury he could challenge Visser, Wade and Kearney – but the Leinster man is too good not to go.
Leigh Halfpenny, the RBS Player of the Six Nations and one of the best goal-kickers in the game, is the Lions No.15-elect. Not only is the 24-year-old Welshman safe as houses as a backstop, he also brings an attacking edge and versatility after extensive international experience on the wing.
His rival for the full-back shirt is Stuart Hogg, and the Scot showed during the Six Nations that he has the speed and flair to add a dangerous counter-attacking dimension.
This is a squad to beat Australia. It has size, power, speed, athleticism, nous, and a good blend of experience and youth. It has goal-kickers, tacticians, carriers and finishers. It is 12 years since the controversial 2001 tour, but that narrow reverse has not been forgotten. This is a Lions side looking for payback – and capable of administering it.
Nick Cain's 37-man Lions Squad
Fullbacks: Leigh Halfpenny (W), Stuart Hogg (S)
Wingers: George North (W), Alex Cuthbert (W), Tim Visser (S), Rob Kearney*(I), Christian Wade (E)
Centres: Jamie Roberts*(W), Billy Twelvetrees (E), Manu Tuilagi (E), Jonathan Davies (W), James Hook (W)
Fly-halves: Jonathan Sexton (I), Owen Farrell (E)
Scrum-halves: Mike Phillips*(W), Ben Youngs (E), Danny Care (E)
Props: Adam Jones*(W), Dan Cole (E), Andrew Sheridan*(E), Cian Healy (I), Gethin Jenkins*(W)
Hookers: Richard Hibbard (W), Ken Owens (W), Rory Best (I)
Locks: Ian Evans (W), Alun Wyn Jones*(W), Richie Gray (S), Paul O'Connell*(I), Joe Launchbury (E)
Flankers: Justin Tipuric (W), Sam Warburton (W), Tom Wood (E), Sean O'Brien (I), Tom Croft*(E)
No.8s: Toby Falatau (W), Jamie Heaslip*(I)
(*Denotes Test Lion)
Jeremy Guscott's Lions team: Leigh Halfpenny; Rob Kearney, Brian O'Driscoll, Jamie Roberts, George North; Jonny Sexton, Mike Phillips; Cian Healy, Rory Best, Adam Jones; Alun Wyn Jones (Capt.), Joe Launchbury; Chris Robshaw, Justin Tipuric, Toby Faletau.
Replacements: Dan Cole, Richard Hibbard, Ryan Grant, Richie Gray, Tom Croft, Ben Youngs Owen Farrell, Jonathan Davies.
Peter Jackson's Lions team: Leigh Halfpenny; Tommy Bowe, Brian O'Driscoll, Jamie Roberts, George North; Jonny Sexton, Mike Phillips; Andrew Sheridan, Rory Best (Capt.), Adam Jones; Alun Wyn Jones, Ian Evans; Sam Warburton, Justin Tipuric, Ben Morgan.
Replacements: Cian Healy, Richard Hibbard, Dan Cole, Jim Hamilton, Sean O'Brien, Ben Youngs, Owen Farrell, Stuart Hogg.
Jeff Probyn's Lions team: Leigh Halfpenny; Alex Cuthbert, Brian O'Driscoll, Jamie Roberts, Tim Visser, Dan Biggar, Mike Phillips; Cian Healy, Tom Youngs, Adam Jones; Alun Wyn Jones (Capt.), Joe Launchbury; Chris Robshaw, Justin Tipuric, Jamie Heaslip.
Replacements: Rory Best, Gethin Jenkins, Dan Cole, Richie Gray, Sam Warburton, Greig Laidlaw, Owen Farrell, Manu Tuilagi.