Is the golden handshake across the Severn, binding the four Welsh regions to the English clubs, the solution it is being cracked up to be. Or is it a crackpot Anglo-Welsh scheme which could be the catalyst for the biggest post- professional meltdown in Northern Hemisphere Rugby Union?
Roger Lewis, the embattled WRU chief executive, no doubt believes it is the latter, and, judging from recent comments, his RFU counterpart, Ian Ritchie, is hardly a supporter of an Anglo-Welsh League.
As a less than enthusiastic Ritchie put it three weeks ago: “Both Unions have to agree it (a cross-border competition), and then it has to get the approval of the IRB…”
The meltdown scenario will depend on whether, barring Union approval, the Welsh regions and English clubs unite in outright rebellion and press on.
If it comes to warfare they are primed, according to Welsh sources, to go to the European law courts to challenge the authority of national Unions like the WRU, and international governing bodies like the IRB, to dictate what competitions they participate in.
It is believed also that, at the same time, they could question whether the IRB’s Regulation 9, which governs player release for international duty, is legal when it is the clubs and regions in England, France and Wales, who are the primary employers of the players.
The implications of national Unions losing the legal right to assemble players would rock the game to its foundations, while also totally undermining the IRB by calling its role into question. It could also lead to a schism between the countries above and others where the national Union is the primary employer, such as New Zealand, Australia, South Africa, Ireland, Italy and Scotland.
My reading of the situation is that, for the moment, the Anglo-Welsh League is a decoy aimed at getting the Welsh Union and its Irish, Scots, Italian and French counterparts back round the table in a further attempt to get the Rugby Champions Cup, run by the Six Nations committee, off the ground as the successor to the ERC-run Heineken Cup.
At the moment the obstacles to a European club tournament of some description becoming a reality are the rank opportunism of the French Union, who want their poodle organisation FIRA to organise it, and the reluctance of the Welsh, Irish and Scots unions to dispense with ERC.
However, there were signs in the first few days of the New Year that the Welsh Union had softened its position, saying it would present a revised participation agreement to the Blues, Scarlets, Ospreys and Dragons.
The regions called the WRU’s bluff by failing to respond to a December 31 deadline to extend their participation agreement, which commenced 2009, up until 2019. They argued that the WRU’s refusal last year to revise some of its terms meant they would face bankruptcy if they committed to it for another five years. By comparison, Cardiff Blues chairman Peter Thomas says that playing in the Rugby Champions Cup will earn each of the regions a further £1m each for three years.
In an ultimatum of their own, the regions gave the WRU until the end of January to agree to the Rugby Champions Cup, after which they vow to press ahead with Premiership Rugby in forming an Anglo-Welsh league.
What also caught the eye was a virtually simultaneous Premiership Press release welcoming the news that, “the Welsh regions are backing the creation of the Rugby Champions Cup next season and have endorsed the need for resolution in a short timescale”.
Within it there was no mention of the Anglo-Welsh League. However, the details leaked already suggest that while it may be a decoy for now, it could soon be activated in the event that all other avenues for the Welsh regions are blocked by Lewis and his Celt-Italian union allies.
My understanding is that there will be no immunity from relegation for the Welsh regions in the new 16-team Premiership – and nor should there be. If the Welsh sides are to be included in what is an established and successful league they should abide by the existing rules on promotion and relegation and not seek, or be granted, special favours.
If one Welsh region is relegated the proposition that, should another finish bottom the next season, a special dispensation allows for the lowest English club to go down instead is absurd. Why not have two champions as well while you’re at it – one the top-placed English, and the other the top Welsh side, even if they finished sixth!
If an Anglo-Welsh Premiership is not a meritocratic league it’s not worth playing in, and, in a 16-team league, serious consideration should be given to two sides being relegated and two promoted from the Championship every season.
As for the current impasse over the future of European Cup rugby, this comment from RFU boss Ritchie highlights the dangers: “You do not want to have a vacuum next season for teams not involved in the Heineken Cup to fill, which is why we have to get this resolved now. If it affects the Six Nations, we are all in trouble”. Too true.