Jeremy Guscott: ‘Home’ advantage can give holders Bordeaux Begles the edge over Leinster

The match at the San Mames stadium in Bilbao on Saturday afternoon will decide whether Bordeaux clinch back-to-back titles, or if Leinster finally secure their fifth gold star after being losing finalists on four occasions since winning their last title in 2018.

Based on the semi-finals, where Bordeaux decisively pulled clear of Bath in a dominant second-half, the French reigning champions will be favourites again, although the Leinster line-up they will face is very good – which is no surprise given that they are a virtual Ireland national team.

The biggest change to Leinster since they won the last of their four European titles in 2018 is that there is no Johnny Sexton.

Star players

Some players are just incredibly challenging to replace, and their former fly-half is one of them.

Great players build their persona by delivering on the big stage when they have to, and Sexton put his money where his mouth was and produced when it mattered most – and he has the medals to prove it.

When you look at Leinster now they still have a roll-call of star players, as well as across-the-board strength.

Dan Sheehan is arguably the best hooker in the world, loose-head Andrew Porter was back to his best in the semi-final against Toulon, Jamison Gibson-Park is a contender at the top of the Test scrum-half rankings, and Hugo Keenan is one of the best full-backs in the game.

Add to that an all-international back row of Jack Conan, Josh van der Flier and Caelan Doris, an effective second row pairing of Joe McCarthy and James Ryan, and the quality of Garry Ringrose at centre, and you have to conclude that even against opposition of Bordeaux’s quality, of course Leinster are capable of winning.

Apart from the inclusion this season of All Black centre Reiko Ioane, Leinster and Ireland almost seem to be one and the same, because they share so many players.

In fact, when you do a head-count they have many more current international players than Bordeaux.

There were, for instance, 13 Irish Test players in their starting line- up against Toulon, and three more on the bench.

Top quality: Leinster will need full-back Hugo Keenan to be at his best
PICTURE: Getty Images

Home identity

However, they are up against a French club which also has a very strong sense of home identity, because Bordeaux have really tapped into the emotion and sporting ambition of their city and region, regularly attracting crowds of 35,000 or more fans.

Leinster enjoy great support, but Bilbao is not a million miles from Bordeaux, and the French fans will feel more at home in the Basque country than the Irish contingent.

Another factor is that Leinster have demons to deal with given their recent meetings in the final with French clubs, losing twice in succession to La Rochelle, and also to Toulouse.

Whether it was facing the big La Rochelle forwards spearheaded by Will Skelton, with Ronan O’Gara as the tactical guru, or their Toulouse counterparts, it will be the same again when they face Bordeaux’s heavyweight pack.

The damage forwards like Cameron Woki can do is impressive, but what makes Bordeaux so formidable is it being more than matched by a star international backline featuring the most lethal finisher in the game, Louis Bielle-Biarrey, alongside the 9-10 combination of Maxime Lucu and Matthieu Jalibert.

This final will come down to who can best channel, and control, the emotion and passion, while at the same time displaying unshakeable belief and confidence.

What’s almost guaranteed is that Leinster will start fast and aim to mount enough early pressure, by playing it tight and keeping possession, that they get ahead.

Structured

In that way they are bit like New Zealand used to be, aiming to hit hard from the kick-off and catch you with your pants down.

Leinster can also park the bus if they establish a lead, managing the tempo of the game and making it hard for the opposition to get any cohesion.

They put a lot of emphasis on control, but the flip side is that if they can’t get it, they lose their way – and against Bordeaux that will make life difficult.

Leinster are more structured than Bordeaux, and have opted for Harry Byrne at fly-half in big games the season more than Sam Prendergast, the new young Irish hope.

Prendergast has been exposed a bit in defence, and tactically is still learning his way to picking the right options.

He’s still a talent, but Byrne is more experienced, and better at keeping continuity after an apprenticeship served in Sexton’s shadow.

Whoever gets the Leinster flyhalf shirt will have the benefit of Gibson-Park providing the service from scrum-half.

He’s got a strut, he’s one of the best, and there’s a bit of the peacock about him, but, while he’s confident, like most Kiwis I’ve come across at the top of the game, he’s not arrogant.

Underdog scrap

Gibson-Park is very competitive and loves an underdog scrap, so he won’t give Bordeaux a millimetre.

It means he’ll be in Lucu’s vision everywhere, all the time, and will be looking for big wins anywhere he can get them.

The same applies to the non-stop Lucu, who is a key inspirational force for Bordeaux.

Let’s just say that if Antoine Dupont didn’t exist, Lucu would be right up there as one of the best 9s in the world.

His combination with Jalibert gives Bordeaux such a dangerous attacking threat close to the breakdown it helps create space out wide, and one of the reasons they are not too structured is because they have so many flamboyant, brilliant backs who just bring it when they need to.

That includes not only Bielle-Biarrey, but also French internationals Yoram Moefana and Damian Penaud at centre, and full backs with the finishing skills of Fiji‘s Salesi Rayasi and Romain Buros.

I’m especially looking forward to seeing Keenan and Bielle-Biarrey on the same pitch, because both are match-winners of the highest quality.

Rugby IQ

The Leinster full-back put himself into the ranks of Lions immortality with that series clinching last-minute try against Australia in the 2nd Test in Melbourne last summer.

Keenan has such great rugby IQ, as does Bielle-Biarrey, and watching him having to keep that lethal chip-and-chase at bay is something to savour.

It will be equally interesting to see if Leinster captain Doris, who is a world-class No.8 at his best, can inspire his pack to meet fire with fire up front.

Doris reminds me a bit of Kieran Read, the former All Blacks skipper, because he’s rangy, carries strongly, has a good rugby brain, and has helped Leinster, and Ireland, to get back on track this season.

However, Bordeaux impressed me against Bath because they never moved away from the way they wanted to play, and were the better team.

Whereas Bath’s lineout and defence was not good when it mattered most, Bordeaux were strong in those areas – and, in attack, while Bath had the chances to win the game, and didn’t take them, Bordeaux made no mistake.

When it’s a close call I’ll always go with the home team, and, with Bordeaux a lot closer to Bilbao than Dublin, I’ll back them to win – but they will have to contain an early Leinster onslaught to do it.