Jeff Probyn: Sorry, but I just can’t see any Englishman starting first Test

With the horse trading over at last we can now focus on a squad that we all hope will bring home the series victory that the Lions so desperately need. There will be a number of players whose disappointment at being left behind will not be eased by the knowledge that they lost out in the usual trade-off as each nation tries to get ‘fair representation' in a squad of 37 players.
The Welsh were always going to have a majority of players as back-to-back Six Nations champions and although the English with ten players and Irish with nine will be satisfied, the Scots with only three will be more than a little disappointed at their lack of representation.
Some of the squad picks are slightly controversial with the inclusion of two English hookers but no place for Irishman Rory Best as well as no place for the English king of fly-halves Jonny Wilkinson, who loses out to the young pretender Owen Farrell.
Wilkinson probably put himself out of contention knowing that in all probability he would have played second fiddle to the younger Sexton and although his experience could have been a valuable asset, he'll be happier staying on the Cote d'Azur.
Meanwhile, Dan Biggar must wonder what he's done wrong to be the only member of the starting Welsh XV not picked despite a good Six Nations campaign.
Dylan Hartley must be thanking his lucky stars that England's Graham Rowntree is the Lions forward coach – because in my opinion he's done nothing this season to merit selection above either Rory Best or Scot Ross Ford. His inability to keep his place as England first-choice, losing out to Tom Youngs, must raise questions unless you believe the unlikely explanation that England possesses two hookers better than either Scotland or Ireland's best (pardon the pun).
The selection of Matt Stevens also raises the question, having stepped away from the international game probably because he thought his time was over and not dominating the scrums in the Premiership. Why?
It can only be his ability to cover both sides that has enabled him to leapfrog those currently at international level and, even though the Australians are not great in the scrum, it will be a big ask for him to raise his game back up to international standard, even after what is a relatively short break from the elite end of the game.
And if they wanted an in-form prop not playing international rugby, Andrew Sheridan would have been a far better choice. But unless something goes dramatically wrong over the remaining French Top 14 season, he, like Wilkinson, would not have been able to join the squad until after the Hong Kong game.
The backs selections are just as strange, the wings chosen are as expected, apart from Scotland's Sean Maitland. Personally I'd have gone with Scotland's Tim Visser.
In Maitland's favour is that only coming to Scotland six months ago he still has a lot of useful knowledge about the Australians and they hate playing against New Zealanders, which possibly explains his selection.
The centres are very safe with a mix of the tried and trusted and the pure power of Manu Tuilagi but it would have been nice to have seen a player with the exciting talents of a Billy Twelvetrees or Luke Marshall included.
With only two fly-halves I'd have expected some utility cover, such as Greig Laidlaw or James Hook but it seems the selectors have taken the view that should an injury occur there would be time between matches to fly in someone (probably Wilkinson).
All in all, it's a pretty conservative squad with just the odd question – but the only real controversy for many English supporters is the exclusion of our Captain Fantastic, Chris Robshaw, a surprise and slightly bitter blow.
As the man who held the England team together on more than one occasion you'd have thought that he'd have made the squad, as mid-week captain if nothing else, but his inability to define his true position in the back row has, I feel, cost him his place.
I also think that Gatland learned a lot from the Welsh tour last summer (even though he wasn't there) and has in his mind a back row combination to counter this area of Australian strength. With the commencement of the Tests, the Lions will start with both Warburton and Tipuric for pace around the field and Irishman Heaslip for power at No.8.
Looking at the squad I can almost see who I think will make the starting XV for the first Test (barring injuries): 15. Leigh Halfpenny (he gets my call because of his goal kicking), 14. Tommy Bowe (one of the best natural scorers), 13. Brian O'Driscoll (his experience will be vital), 12. Jamie Roberts (has played with O'Driscoll in 2009), 11. George North (has power to trouble Australia out wide), 10. Jonathan Sexton (the form fly-half), 9. Mike Phillips (upsets all he plays against).
The forwards are slightly harder to separate but I'd go with: 1. Cian Healy (has worked hard to improve scrum and still good round the field), 2. Richard Hibbard (has the physicality to dominate opposition), 3. Adam Jones (simply the best prop), 4. Paul O'Connell (injury enabled him to rest and is now at top of his game), 5. Richie Gray (the most athletic forward in the squad), 6. Warburton, 7. Tipuric, 8. Heaslip.
I can't see any of the English contingent starting although a number will finish it.
All fans will choose their own teams and have differing opinions about the squad but Gatland has made his choices and – if the Lions win – he will come home a hero.