Charlie Elliott: My Lions vs Wallabies first Test predictions

The British and Irish Lions kick off their three-Test series against Australia this Saturday in Brisbane, aiming to make a strong statement on Australian soil.

So far this summer, the Lions have remained unbeaten in the country, picking up wins against top local teams like the Western Force and Queensland Reds. 

Led by Andy Farrell, they’ll be hoping to replicate their success from the last Lions tour in 2013, when they won the series down under.

Australia, however, face the challenge of missing key players due to injury but remain confident, with some exciting young and inexperienced players ready to make an impact.

Here, Charlie Elliott goes through his predictions for the first Test and where he thinks the game will be won and lost.

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Lions stronger physically, but Wallabies pose threat

The first Test promises to be a tough, physical contest, but the Lions seem well placed to come out on top. Australia will be missing two key players in their forward pack, lock Will Skelton and back row Rob Valetini, both sidelined with injuries.

Their absence takes away some of the Wallabies’ power and experience up front, which is a big blow in such a physically demanding game.

On the other hand, the Lions have picked a strong and experienced forward pack, including Tom Curry at openside flanker. 

Curry is known for his hard work at the breakdown and his ability to disrupt the opposition, which could be crucial in slowing down the Australian attack.

The Lions’ forwards are expected to impose themselves physically, gaining control over the game’s tempo and possession.

While the Lions’ forwards are heavier, the Wallabies are more dynamic, and it could be a bit of a clash of styles up front.

In games like these, that physicality tends to lend itself better, and with it looking set to be tight, winning out in set pieces is key.

READ MORE: British and Irish Lions vs Wallabies – Five key head-to-head matchups in the first test

Wallabies backs more dynamic

The battle in the backs is set to be just as fierce, with Australia’s backline offering plenty of energy and creativity, especially through their centres.

Len Ikitau and Joseph Sua’ali’i are real game-changers for the Wallabies. They bring speed, skill, and the ability to break through defences, which could cause real problems for the Lions. Their flair and unpredictability make them a constant threat.

Farrell, however, has picked a strong midfield pairing in Scotland‘s Huw Jones and Sione Tuipulotu, who have great understanding and experience playing together.

Tuipulotu knows firsthand how dangerous Sua’ali’i can be and will be crucial in trying to keep him in check.

The visitors will need to be tough and focused in the centres to stop Australia’s backline from building momentum.

While Australia’s backs might be more dynamic and exciting, the Lions will rely on their experience and solid teamwork to keep things under control. 

If they can contain those dangerous centres early on, they’ll take a lot of the threat out of Australia’s attack.

While the Lions’ back three is more well-rounded, in terms of sheer pace and agility, the Wallabies’ back three comes out on top.

Home Advantage

The British and Irish Lions have a strong overall record against Australia, having won 17 of their 23 Test matches. 

However, playing in Australia brings its challenges, especially with the intense home advantage the Wallabies enjoy.

Suncorp Stadium is known for its passionate and vocal fans who create a hostile environment for visiting teams.

That energy can lift the Wallabies, giving them a boost when the match is tight or physical. It is one of those grounds where the fans feel extremely close to the pitch, and therefore boosts the atmosphere.

Despite this, the Lions have faced the Wallabies in Brisbane eight times, and Australia are yet to win one of these clashes, so this home advantage rhetoric may be slightly overstated.

READ MORE: British and Irish Lions vs Wallabies First Test – Key talking points and where the game will be won and lost

Tom Lynagh

Fly-half Tom Lynagh is set to follow in his father Michael’s footsteps when he starts for Australia in Saturday’s first Test against the British and Irish Lions at Suncorp Stadium.

At just 22, Lynagh steps into the number 10 jersey due to Noah Lolesio’s injury, echoing his father’s role in the 1989 Lions series.

Though still early in his international career, Lynagh has shown a quiet confidence that has impressed Australia’s head coach Joe Schmidt.

Growing up with a Wallaby legend as a father, Lynagh understands the pressure and expectations that come with the role. Playing at Suncorp, his home ground, will help him feel comfortable in what promises to be a challenging debut start.

For these reasons, I think that he may step up to the plate and be one of the surprising performers for Australia on Saturday.

Maro Itoje

Itoje will be a vital figure for the British and Irish Lions as they take on Australia. 

This Test match marks a huge milestone for him – his 100th international appearance – and he will lead the team as captain. Itoje’s leadership qualities are well known; he inspires those around him with calm authority and a relentless work ethic.

His power and size make him a dominant force in the set pieces, especially in the lineout and scrum. 

Partnered by Joe McCarthy in the second row, Itoje brings the perfect blend of physicality and intelligence to the pack.

Andy Farrell’s confidence in Itoje as captain reflects just how important he is to the Lions’ chances.

On this big stage, Itoje’s experience, strength, and leadership will be key as the Lions push to control the game and secure a series-winning start.

How the game will pan out

I expect the first Test to be a pretty cagey affair. With so much on the line and it being the opening match, both teams will be cautious early on, feeling each other out.

I think Australia will come out the better side, though, using their home advantage and energy from the crowd to take an early lead. 

They’ll be motivated to make a statement in front of their fans.

But I believe the Lions will settle into the game as the match goes on. Their experience and physicality will start to shine through, especially in the second half.

The Lions’ strength up front should gradually wear Australia down. In the end, I see the Lions edging out a tough, hard-fought win by five points.

By Charlie Elliott

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