RWC Countdown: Halfway to Go, Why Are the Boks Not Favourites for Historic Three-Peat?

It feels like only yesterday that Siya Kolisi was lifting the Webb Ellis Cup aloft at the Stade de France after a gruelling arm wrestle with the All Blacks – a nail-biting final that South Africa edged by a single point to claim the 2023 Rugby World Cup.

Now, remarkably, we’re already nearing the halfway mark to the next global showpiece in 2027, set to be hosted in Australia. Victory Down Under would secure an unprecedented three-peat for the Springboks following their triumphs in 2019 and 2023.

Yet despite being the reigning champions, the top-ranked team in the world, and widely regarded as the side to beat, Rassie Erasmus’ men are not the bookmakers’ favourites to win the next edition of the World Cup.

Why not?

The Outright Odds as of 2025

To give some perspective, if you bet on sports and have checked the latest 2027 Rugby World Cup odds, you’ll find New Zealand leading the pack at 5/2, with the Springboks just behind at 3/1.

What does that mean in real terms if the Boks go all the way? Surprisingly, this betting calculator shows that a £10 bet on South Africa would return a £30 profit.

Ordinarily, this is the kind of return typically associated with outsiders, not the team that’s lifted the Webb Ellis Cup more times than any other nation.

South Africa are World Champions for the fourth time! 🏆🏆🏆🏆#RWCFinal | @Springboks pic.twitter.com/E2oqPJKF00

— ITV Rugby (@ITVRugby) October 28, 2023

Of course, past success is no guarantee of future triumphs, and your first thought might be that these odds reflect a dip in form since that fierce showdown in France against the All Blacks. But that couldn’t be further from the truth.

Don’t Bet Against the Boks

South Africa played 13 Test matches last year and won 11 of them — an impressive win rate of nearly 85 per cent. Even more telling is that the two defeats, against Ireland and Argentina, came by a margin of just one point each, and there’s context to both.

Ireland’s victory in Durban, though thrilling, was sealed by a last-gasp drop goal from Ciaran Frawley in a match the Boks had led since the first half. The loss to Argentina in Santiago del Estero came after a bruising, emotionally-charged win over the All Blacks in Cape Town. The Boks responded emphatically to that setback, thrashing the Pumas by 41 points in the return fixture and clinching the Rugby Championship title — their first since 2019. 

Put plainly, and as of mid-2025, this is a side in outstanding form and beating pretty much everyone in their path. 

Still, questions about the age of the squad come into play when looking ahead to 2027. Will some of the core players be past their peak by then? It’s a valid concern — and one that may partly explain the Boks’ relatively long odds.

But again, it’s an argument that’s easy to dismiss when put under the slightest scrutiny. Erasmus has already begun refreshing the Bok camp, calling up several uncapped players for the upcoming winter internationals in South Africa — some of whom haven’t even played professional rugby yet. 

As for the spine of the team in 2027: Pieter-Steph du Toit will be 34, Handre Pollard, Cheslin Kolbe, and Jesse Kriel will all be 33, Malcolm Marx and RG Snyman 32, and Lukhanyo Am 31. Match-winners like Manie Libbok and Damian Willemse will still be just 29.

The reality is that in today’s international game, with advances in sports science and professionalism, these Bok veterans could well be entering the purple patch of their careers — more than capable of one last swan song, with the all-important experience to get over the line when the pressure is intolerable.

HOW GOOD.

This try, in the Rugby World Cup final, was sensational from Cheslin Kolbe. pic.twitter.com/DXZFGG3DTz

— Rugby World Cup (@rugbyworldcup) November 3, 2019

There is, undoubtedly, still a lot of water to pass under the bridge between now and the opening match at Perth Stadium in 2027, but the South Africans will feel that their preparation for a historic three-peat couldn’t be going any better.