Can Leinster Win The URC? – What The Bookmakers Think

The 2024/2025 season for the United Rugby Championship began on the 20th of September 2024 and will conclude on Saturday the 14th of June when the final will take place.

This weekend, the knockout stages start and the quarter-finals will see eight teams fight for the four available spots to lead them into the semi-finals.

Leinster, who hold the most titles won in the URC, will play the Scarlets on Saturday the 31st of May. But do the bookmakers think they can win the championship?

Bookmaker Odds

Below are the betting odds from different bookmakers taken from Betselect for the outright winner of the URC.

	bet365 Odds	Coral Odds	William Hill Odds	BoyleSports Odds
Leinster	2/5	1/3	2/5	2/5
Bulls	4/1	4/1	17/4	4/1
Sharks	10/1	10/1	10/1	12/1
Glasgow Warriors	14/1	14/1	12/1	16/1

Leinster is the favourite to win the URC by a landslide, as their betting odds range from 2/5 to 1/3 to win. If you were to bet, you should choose the 2/5 odds as you would make a marginally larger from than if you were to bet 1/3.

For example, let’s say you staked €15. With the former you would make a €6 profit, and with the latter €5.

With this being said there are six matches to go before the grand final, so these odds will change drastically depending on the performance in the next few weeks.

The Bulls are also within reach of the URC winning title. They have won all four of their last matches against the Dragons, Cardiff, Glasgow, and Munster.

The Bulls’ last match against Leinster in March ended 21-20, so let’s hope history is not repeated.

It goes without saying that the Bulls will be out for blood, after a devastating loss last year in the final against the Glasgow Warriors.

The reigning champions, Glasgow Warriors, are not performing as well as fans believed they would. Most recently, they lost to Leinster 13-5 on the 17th of May, but they still managed fourth place up until now.

Leinster Recent Form

So far, Leinster has put on an impressive performance. Their statistics for this season are currently:

• 542 points scored
• 79 tries scored
• 198 offloads
• 78% tackle success
• 132 turnovers won

In their last four URC matches, Leinster have won against the the Glasgow Warriors 13-5, won against Zebre 76-5, lost against the Scarlets 35-22, and won against Ulcer in a 41-17 defeat. Overall, the current standings show that Leinster are first in the table, but they have not won yet.

They will play the Scarlets on Saturday, with a home advantage at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin.

Although the Scarlets don’t have the best odds of winning, they have a ruthless team including Ioan Lloyd, who is the top points scorer in the competition, Gareth Davies who has the most kicks in play, and Marnus Van der Merwe who has the most lineouts won.

The winner of the match will go on to play in the semi-finals on Saturday the 7th of June against the winners of the Glasgow Warriors versus Stormers match.

Essentially, if Leinster get to the finals, they will either be playing Edinburgh, the Bulls, the Sharks, or Munster.

Fixtures

Quarter-Finals:

• Friday 30th May: Glasgow Warriors versus Stormers
• Saturday 31st May: Bulls versus Edinburgh
• Saturday 31st May: Leinster versus Scarlets
• Saturday 31st May: Sharks versus Munster

Semi-Finals:

• Saturday 7th June: TBD (Leinster or Scarlets versus Glasgow Warriors or Stormers)
• Saturday 7th June: TBD (Bulls or Edinburgh versus Sharks or Munster)

The Final:

• Saturday 14th June: TBD

Leinster last won the URC in 2021, when they defeated Munster in what was then called the Pro14. The four-year consecutive reign was demolished in the 2021/2022 season when the Stormers took the crown, and Leinster has been struggling to reach where they once were.

However, this year shows real potential, with an outstanding squad including captain Caelan Doris, and teammates like RG Snyman and Jamison Gibson-Park who have been playing incredibly.

Furthermore, Aitzol Arenzana-King has a 100% tackle success rate.  However, after a shoulder injury sustained by the captain in the Investec Champions Cup, Doris required surgery and will likely be sidelined for six months.

Things are looking hopeful for Leinster, but by the very nature of rugby, the unexpected is possible.