Uruguay vs Chile Second Leg Preview: Los Teros have chance to qualify for 2027 World Cup in style

The South American qualification process that began in August 2024 finally comes to an end this weekend, with Uruguay looking to secure a spot at their fourth consecutive World Cup.

Having overcome Chile 28-16 in the first leg away from home, Uruguay have the chance to qualify in style in front of their own fans.

Chile head to Montevideo knowing it will take a historic win to see them qualify for their second-ever World Cup.

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Game One Recap

Chile head coach Pablo Lemoine will have been delighted at the way his side dragged themselves back into the game on Saturday, having trailed 14-3 in the first half.

With 50 minutes played, Chile actually found themselves ahead but were kept scoreless for the final half hour.

Their scrum performed well as expected, but they ultimately failed to punish Uruguay off the back of it as their line-out faltered and their attack failed to carve open a resolute Uruguay defence.

Uruguay weren’t at their best but showed a clinical edge when they needed it and their rolling maul proved to be the game’s definitive weapon.

Returning scrum half Santiago Arata reminded the world of his international class with a commanding display.

His halfback partner, Felipe Etcheverry, may not have had his best game with ball in hand, but he slotted all four conversions which helped build the crucial 12-point buffer his side carry into Saturday’s game.

Uruguay on the Cusp

For the hosts, the task is simple: they must avoid defeat by 12 points or more to secure their place in Australia.

Naturally, the best way to avoid defeat by any margin is to look to win the game and put an exclamation mark on their qualification.

Bruising No.8 Manuel Diana is available for selection after missing the first leg but Ambrosio may hesitate to break up a back row that functioned well in Santiago.

In all likelihood, Diana will come back into the team and his ball-carrying prowess could provide the platform for Uruguay to unleash their formidable backline.

It seems as though Uruguay are holding all the cards. Already the favourites heading into the tie, they have a 12-point cushion and are playing in front of their own fans.

However, the match could rest on whether Uruguay’s scrum or Chile’s maul defence improve more in the seven days between the two matches.

If Uruguay struggle to make the same inroads through their maul, they may find themselves under pressure.

Finally, it is worth noting that the overwhelming majority of the Uruguay team play for the country’s franchise, Peñarol.

In June, Peñarol led 35-8 against Dogos in the Super Rugby Americas final after an hour, only to concede 26 points in the final quarter.

They managed to hold on to win the final by a single point. If Chile strike early, memories of that game could creep into the Uruguay players’ minds, making that 12-point buffer seem awfully small.

Chasing the Deficit

Like Uruguay, Chile know exactly what is required of them, albeit the task is rather more daunting. The visitors must win by 12 points or more to avoid having to face the 6th placed Pacific Nations Cup side for a place in Australia. There will be a time to explore those matches nearer the time. The Chile players will only be thinking about Saturday’s game.

The most glaring statistic to come out of Saturday’s match was the fact that Uruguay scored four tries to Chile’s one. If they are to win the tie, Chile simply must score more tries – penalties are not likely to be enough to secure a 13 point victory. The question then shifts to how they go about it.

In terms of selection, Lemoine may be tempted to bring scrum half Lucas Berti in to start ahead of Benjamín Videla.

When he came on in the first leg, Berti noticeably upped the intensity and Lemoine will surely want his team to start fast and begin to sow doubt into the Uruguayans.

Rodrigo Fernández didn’t have his best game on Saturday but the legendary fly half has earned the right to go again, despite a positive cameo from replacement Juan Cruz Reyes.

Lemoine has favoured strike runners in his back three, but wingers Nicolás Garafulic, Iñaki Ayarza, and fullback Cristóbal Game were consistently nullified in Santiago.

One option would be to bring another playmaker into the side, possibly at fullback, in an attempt to ask different questions of the Uruguay defence.

Chile attack coach Jake Mangin regularly deployed Tomás Salas at fullback for the Chilean franchise, Selknam, this year and Lemoine may call on him for the game in Montevideo.

However, the most pressing issue for Chile is not finding new weapons, but making sure they are taking advantage of the ones they already have.

Their scrum won them penalties, but they lost too many line-outs, which meant they failed to take advantage of the field position won by their forwards’ effort.

If they are to rip up the script on Saturday, their scrum will need to yield points, not just pats on the back.

Potential Permutations

These things can get confusing very quickly, but fortunately, the stakes here are simple:

If Uruguay win, draw, or lose by fewer than 12 points, they are qualified.

If Chile win by 13 points or more, they have qualified.

In the case the two sides are drawn on aggregate, the two teams head to sudden-death overtime. They will play two 10-minute halves, in which the first team to score is immediately declared the winner.

If the two sides remain level, the tie will be decided by a drop-goal contest.

By Joe Santamaria

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