Andy Robinson has backed England for 2019 Rugby World Cup glory – as long as they don't meet reigning champions New Zealand in the final.
Robinson, who was assistant to Sir Clive Woodward when England won the World Cup in 2003, believes Eddie Jones' men have the all-court game and hunger to replicate that success.
However, he fears the All Blacks' World Cup-winning mentality could prove decisive if they are one game away from a record-extending fourth global triumph.
Robinson, who was head coach of England between 2004 and 2006, told The Rugby Paper: “I think England will win (the World Cup), providing they play New Zealand in the semi-final.
“England have never beaten New Zealand in a World Cup (in three previous matches), so I think facing them in a semi-final is a better match-up for them as opposed to facing them in a final. New Zealand have only ever lost one final (in 1995), and that was in extra-time against South Africa in South Africa.
“Their experience and know-how of winning finals is superior to anyone else in the tournament. I think England can beat South Africa in a final, even though the Springboks are the best side in the world at the moment for me. They don't have any weaknesses in their squad.”
Robinson is hugely impressed with how England have developed since their ignominious failure to progress from their group at their home World Cup four years ago.
He drew comparisons with how Woodward's side rebounded from a 1999 quarter-final exit to South Africa to win the World Cup four years later.
“Eddie has a squad that's hungry enough, has learned the lessons of 2015 and now they're ready to deliver,” said Robinson, who revealed he is “considering several offers” having left his role as Bristol's director of rugby in November 2016.
“They've got some major weapons in their team, particularly when you look at (Billy) Vunipola and (Manu) Tuilagi as ball carriers. They're phenomenal.
“England have got an all-court game and play at huge pace. They tend to start pretty well so they look to score a try in the first five minutes, which is really exciting.”
Robinson is similarly excited by the emergence of Tom Curry and Sam Underhill in the back row, insisting that they complement each other and No.8 Billy Vunipola's experience perfectly.
“I think Curry is going to be the star name of this tournament,” he said. “He's a phenomenal back row forward.”
The nature of England's two away defeats to a dogged Wales this year worries the 55-year-old former flanker, however.
“The biggest concern for me with England will be what happens when a team like Wales stop you from playing and mess you around a bit. If the game becomes messy and they aren't able to consistently get the momentum they need and the pace in their game they need, do England have the ability to change their game?
“Do they have the ability to bring in a good pick-and-go game to use their maul to great effect? Discipline will also be key. Just on occasions they compound errors with lots of silly penalties.”
Robinson does not envisage any dark horses emerging in Japan, insisting England, New Zealand and South Africa are “nailed on” to reach the semi-finals.
He says the hopes of Scotland, who he coached between 2009 and 2012, rest firmly on the shoulders of mercurial fly-half Finn Russell's shoulders.
“He's a phenomenal performer and the heartbeat of this team. He provides the pace of the game for them and gives them the ambition to play.
“Russell and (Stuart) Hogg, that axis at 10 and 15, can be very damaging if they get their game going.”
Euan Reedie
