Six Nations analysis: Can Scotland finally end their Dublin hoodoo? Or will Ireland prevail?

By Chris Collyer

The general expectation amongst most Irish rugby fans before the first kick-off of the 2026 Six Nations was to see improvements made following on from a mixed Autumn International season and hopefully a mid-table finish.

Now, as we stare down the barrel of Super Saturday, Irish fans will be thrilled to see a potential second-place finish or higher, along with a likelihood to retain the Triple Crown.

All that stands between that goal is a very spirited and revitalised Scotland.

Scotland’s rugby journey has been the talk of this Six Nations Tournament, from losing to Italy under torrential downpour to putting 50 points on Championship favourites France in Murrayfield, Gregor Townsend‘s team have a shot at claiming the title for the first time since there were only five nations competing.  

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Scotland’s unlikely title push & Ireland‘s Dublin fortress

For Scotland to be crowned Six Nations Champions 2026, they will need to win their next game, and France needs to lose to England, or if Scotland win with a bonus point and France do not.

For this to happen, they have to do something they have never been able to do: defeat Ireland at the Aviva Stadium.

Of all the exciting fixtures and rivalries the Six Nations brings, the Ireland-Scotland game is one to circle in the calendar.

Players who played alongside one another during the British and Irish Lions tours easily shrug off past loyalties and put out one of the most physical and brutal games every time they meet in this annual tournament.

From Peter O’Mahoney regularly getting under Scottish skin to Ireland losing two hookers in a never-to-be-forgotten game at Murrayfield in 2023 as Ireland cruised to a Grand Slam, the 2022 World Player Of The Year, Josh van der Flier, leapt to the call to take on lineout duties and threw the ball in nine times.

There is always something special as the two teams play for their annual trophy: The Centenary Quaich.

This coveted silverware, however, currently remains in Irish hands and has done so for just under 10 years and in order for Scotland to reclaim the Quaich, they will have to do so away from their mighty fortress of Murrayfield.

Scotland have yet to beat Ireland at Lansdowne Road and Townsend’s men are entering the Aviva on Saturday, bringing with them the baggage of 11 losses in a row to Ireland, with eight during the Six Nations, two during the World Cup and one Autumn Nations game during Covid.

Townsend’s selection headache

On top of this monumental challenge, Gregor Townsend, whose job is safe to say, is no longer under scrutiny after Scotland’s most successful Six Nations Tournament so far, will have to do so without six key players.

In their outstanding victory over France, Scotland lost Adam Hastings, Elliot Mills, Nathan McBeth, Gregor Brown, Scott Cummings and electric winger Duhan Van der Merwe.

Something of a green mountain to climb.

It’s a credit to Townsend and Scotland that for the first time they are in a position to not only win the Six Nations Championship but also to take back the Centenary Quaich and secure the Triple Crown for the first time since 1990 which would be the fourth time Scotland secured to crown, whereas if Ireland go on to win in front of their roaring home crowd, it would be theirs for the 15th time.

Can Ireland or Scotland take the crown on Super Saturday?

Ireland themselves have followed a similar path to Scotland by losing the first game, being ran close in another before putting on a barnstorming performance against a team that was expected to beat them when they dismantled England at Twickenham.

Farrell‘s men have shown they have what it takes to contend with the best teams in the world, grind out a win when things aren’t going to plan and have shown us this Six Nations that they are learning and developing as a group, with previous discipline and lineout woes apparently a thing of the past.

Recently, however, the ever-reliable van der Flier was photographed practising lineout throws whilst training in the Irish camp.

With Farrell expected to name a battle-hardened and formidable team at 2pm this afternonn then if van der Flier is practising lineout throws, past games are not only NOT to be forgotten but respected and for many Scottish fans, feared.

READ MORE: 2026 Six Nations analysis: Who takes the crown in this Saturday’s finale?