What to expect from the last matchday of Rugby’s Six Nations

The 2026 Six Nations has been blown wide open just before the finish line. France looked as if they were marching toward another title, but Scotland’s wild 50-40 win in Edinburgh and Ireland’s 27-17 victory over Wales have turned Super Saturday on 14 March into a genuine three-team race. The final day now opens with Ireland v Scotland in Dublin at 14:10 GMT, continues with Wales v Italy in Cardiff at 16:40 GMT, and closes with a classic: France v England in Paris at 20:10 GMT.

A three-team title race and a day built on pressure

The big headline is simple: France and Scotland are level on 16 points, while Ireland sit on 14 after four rounds. France still leads the table thanks to their points difference: +79 for Les Bleus, compared with Scotland’s +21, while Ireland remains close enough to win it all if everything goes as planned. That means nobody can ease into the final weekend. France is still in the strongest position, but they are no longer cruising; Scotland has real momentum; Ireland is still close enough to turn Dublin into the first act of a title drama.

That context changes the emotional texture of the last round. France will kick off their own match knowing exactly what they need, but they also now carry the shock of conceding 50 points in a game where discipline and defensive control were erased from the equation. Scotland, on the other hand, arrived with extra motivation after scoring seven tries against the tournament favourites. Ireland has a different energy: they are alive, but only just, and their narrow win over Wales felt more like survival than the expected domination. Super Saturday is often sold as theatre, but this time the tension is earned.

France remain strong favourites with bookmakers ahead of the final round, with Bet365 listing them at around 1.20 to win the championship. Ireland and Scotland follow behind in the betting depending on the outcome in Dublin. Information about the Bet365 bonus code for new UK users can be found online for those tracking the latest bookmaker promotions.

Ireland v Scotland could decide whether the title race explodes or shrinks

The opening match is easily the most interesting. Ireland and Scotland must win to stay in the title race, because whoever wins will require help later from England in Paris. Scotland know that victory in Dublin would keep them in the championship hunt, in what would be their first Six Nations title since 1999. Scotland’s win over the French was their highest points tally ever against Les Bleus and the first time since that 1999 title year they managed four tries or more against France in the championship.

There is another layer here too: the Triple Crown. Ireland’s win over Wales kept that prize alive, and Scottish hopes were already intact after their comeback victory over Wales in round three. So the first game of the day also has the taste of a direct rivalry. Ireland will trust the experience of their players and their ability to manage the key moments, but there were warning signs against Wales.

Scotland may actually be the team nobody wants to face right now. Gregor Townsend praised the attacking mindset that took them past France, especially their willingness to keep pushing for tries rather than settle for safety. Ireland, meanwhile, has had to manage setbacks of their own, including the loss of James Lowe for the rest of the championship after his groin injury.

Wales v Italy and France v England will bring the verdict

The second game of the day in Cardiff might look boring, but still matters. Wales are still winless, yet their performance in Dublin suggested they are no longer playing like a side that wants to lose in peace. They pushed Ireland hard, defended with far more conviction and showed real progress. Italy, meanwhile, arrive on a historic high after beating England for the first time ever. That makes Wales v Italy feel less like a dead rubber and more like a fight to define who leaves the tournament with some momentum and who leaves it with a sour taste.

Then comes the closing game, with a title on the line: France against England at the Stade de France. France remains favourites despite their lacklustre match against Scotland, as they are at home and still hold the points-difference advantage over both Scotland and Ireland, but the aura has changed. England have lost three straight matches after their defeat in Rome, yet wounded teams can be dangerous, especially in Le Crunch. France will know that the cleanest route is to remove all suspense themselves, but after their defensive collapse against The Thistles, they don’t look untouchable anymore.

Will France survive? Is Scotland the team to beat now? Or will Ireland be able to end their fairytale run with a title? This Saturday will answer all those questions.