Why Ireland are unlikely to win the 2026 Six Nations

For the first time in a couple of years, Ireland aren’t the favourites to win the Six Nations.

The leading Irish rugby betting sites expect both France and England to finish ahead of Andy Farrell’s side, just as they did last year. But is this just a case of unfavourable fixtures, a sign of things to come or maybe a combination of both?

Difficult trips to France and England await

As we know, the fixture list can play a significant role in who ends up lifting the Six Nations trophy. Whether a team is scheduled to play three home games and two away or vice versa is often pivotal to a team’s chances of success.

In that sense, Ireland will have an advantage. Three games at the Aviva against Italy, Wales and Scotland should yield three victories and the potential to accumulate bonus points. Despite the Autumn Nations’ defeat to South Africa – a rare blemish on an otherwise dominant recent record on home turf – the Aviva Stadium remains a fortress for Ireland. 13 wins from their last 14 Six Nations matches at the Aviva speak for itself.

On the flip side, however, Ireland face undoubtedly the two toughest away matches possible in France and England. Historically, Ireland have struggled in France with only four wins to their name since 2000, although their most recent triumph in 2024 will give them cause for optimism.

Ireland have fared better at Twickenham, but they’ll need to shake off their most recent memory when a last-minute Marcus Smith drop goal secured England a 23-22 victory in 2024, ending Ireland’s Grand Slam hopes at the same time.

An ageing squad at the end of its cycle?

Andy Farrell’s tenure since succeeding Joe Schmidt as head coach in 2029 is widely regarded as a success. 

The Englishman has built on the work of his predecessor, leading Ireland to two back-to-back Six Nations titles in 2023 & 2024 (including a Grand Slam in 2023), a historic series win in New Zealand and to the top of the Rugby World Rankings ahead of the 2023 World Cup.

There is concern, however, that this crop of players, many of whom are 30+ or nearing 30, is perhaps nearing the end of its cycle. 

Farrell has strongly refuted the suggestion that Ireland’s team is ageing. But there’s little doubt it could do with an injection of younger blood, especially with the Rugby World Cup less than two years away. The likes of Bundee Aki, Jamison Gibson-Park, James Lowe, Tadhe Beirne and Jack Conan will be well into their 30s by the time 2027 rolls around.

As he proved by sticking with Johnny Sexton and Peter O’Mahony in 2023, Farrell is an advocate for experience. However, as the best coaches will attest, there comes a point when you need to start rebuilding for the future. That time looks to be now for Ireland.

France & England are in much better shape

Another reason why Ireland are unlikely to win this year’s championship lies with the fact that there are currently two teams in much better shape.

France, the reigning champions, are the bookies’ favourites (5/6) to retain their title. Les Bleus boast arguably the most complete squad, which will once again feature their captain, Antoine Dupont, with the scrum-half nearing full fitness again after eight months out injured.

The fact that France have home advantage when they play their main rivals also swings the pendulum hugely in their favour. France begin their title defence at home to Ireland in the tournament’s opening match, and also welcome England to the Stade de France for the final act of Super Saturday. 

That match is already being billed as a title decider, given England’s recent form coming into the tournament. Steve Borthwick has guided his team to 11 straight victories, but it’s not just momentum England have ahead of the tournament.

Borthwick has a unified and well-balanced squad at his disposal, led expertly by skipper Maro Itoje. There’s also a certain Henry Pollock, considered a generational talent by many, who will view this year’s championship as a further opportunity to showcase his talents and cement his status as one of rugby’s best young players.

Either way, both nations are worthy contenders and will take some stopping, unfortunately for Ireland.