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‘Pool of Death’ set to become a World Cup regular

Bernard FoleyThe group-stage elimination of England in the 2015 Rugby World Cup came about, in part at least, as a result of the draw being made in December 2012 when, as a result of some costly defeats in the Autumn Internationals, the host nation were ranked fifth and Wales had slipped to ninth in the world rankings.
As a consequence, both ended up in a pool with Australia, and England, among the pre-tournament favourites with Sporting Index, were effectively on their way to an early exit as soon as they lost to the Welsh.
Keen to avoid any repeat, the 2019 Rugby World Cup draw is being held eight months closer to the finals than was the case for 2015, with the leading nations looking to reduce the possibilities of another ‘Pool of Death’ by ensuring that more recent form is taken into account by the time the tournament begins in Japan.
What that boils down to is that, on this occasion, the Six Nations teams will be afforded the opportunity to improve upon their rankings ahead of the draw for the 2019 World Cup, which takes place in Kyodo, Japan, on May 10th next year.
As things currently stand in the rankings, Argentina occupy ninth position (79.91 points).  However, with the Rugby Championship not taking place until later in the year, Los Pumas will almost certainly climb a place or two due to results in the Six Nations, with the likes of France (80.13), Scotland (80.67) and even Wales (82.55) in danger.  In reality, an earlier draw would have been preferable for the European big guns.
Of course, being ranked in the top eight nations when the 2019 World Cup draw takes place doesn’t guarantee avoiding any ‘Pool of Death’, but it certainly increases your chances of doing so.  Even so, the increasingly competitive nature of international rugby means that we will realistically have two such pools in 2019, with host nation Japan being the other team everyone will be fairly desperate to avoid.
Stuart LancasterAside from the obvious benefit of home advantage, it shouldn’t be forgotten that the Brave Blossoms have featured in all eight World Cups to date and in 2015 became the first team in World Cup history to win three pool games but still to be eliminated at the group stage.
In doing so, Japan also pulled off arguably the biggest shock in World Cup history, when a last-minute try from Karne Hesketh proved to decisive in a 34–32 victory over South Africa.  A Tier 2 rugby nation they may be, but Japan (currently 11th in the rankings with 74.22 points) will be genuine contenders for a quarter-final appearance.
The growing popularity of the game around the world should ensure that we are soon looking at a World Cup where none of the top teams will be able to take their progress from the pool stage for granted, whatever the draw.  That can only be good thing.

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