Nick Cain picks his English lions as Eddie Jones reaches a watershed

Whichever way you look at it, the manner in which England's clean sweep and world record was slammed in Dublin was a watershed moment for Eddie Jones and his team. If the head coach takes the conservative route and sticks with the players at his disposal then they have to take a quantum leap, because on the evidence of their defeat by Ireland there are not good enough in any department to be world champions.
By contrast, if Jones is adventurous and makes changes in multiple areas with the 2019 World Cup in mind, it has to be on the basis of a measured calculation. Namely, that the newcomers will be better than their predecessors, either instantly, or at most within a season.
Afterwards Jones used his well-polished routine of blaming himself to deflect from the failings of his team. However, it could not mask harsh realities from intruding. Let's talk leadership first.
What is obvious from this failed bid is that England do not have leaders with pin-sharp tactical acumen – or if they do, they do not have the confidence to let it be known. The lack of alacrity in dealing with Ireland's domination of territory and possession, or Italy's no-ruck tactic a few weeks earlier, were clear examples.
Somewhere, somehow, the head coach has to find enough players with the initiative to respond to the opposition on the hoof, rather than waiting for his water-carrier assistant coaches to come on and point them in the right direction.
Whatever Jones says to cover it up, the fault-line is glaring. This is a side that becomes stuck too easily, and relies too much on the coaching command module rather than putting things right by senior players reading the game and taking action.
Jones has set great store by the captaincy of Dylan Hartley, saying repeatedly that the Saints hooker brings an unflinching focus and steadiness that is priceless. He has also made it abundantly clear that Hartley, the captain, is worth more than the sum of his parts as a player.
While England were unassailable, winning a remarkable 18 games in succession, that was hard to dispute – but now the goalposts have moved. During this Six Nations the Northampton hooker has been replaced early in the second half of each match, and while Jones has been honest that he does not consider Hartley to be a great player, or one with an elite fitness profile, his status has been undermined.
It is hard, for instance, to imagine New Zealand taking Dane Coles off ten minutes after half-time. He is simply too important a player to the All Blacks to be wheeled off with barely half the match played, and the acid part of the test still to come.
The England coach has said that at least 15 of his squad deserve to be selected for this summer's Lions tour, but on form alone it is very hard to make a case for Hartley – and form should be the key criterion.
Fifteen is not an excessive number given what England have achieved on Jones' watch so far. They have been the most consistent and successful team in this hemisphere by a country mile. However, last season's Grand Slam and ground-breaking three-nil tour whitewash of Australia came at a price, with a long list of injuries to key players forcing Jones to recast his team over the autumn and in their title defence of the Six Nations.
He has introduced the likes of Elliot Daly, Ben Te'o, above, Nathan Hughes and Kyle Sinckler to international rugby without missing a beat, and has also deployed Maro Itoje at blindside to shore up a depleted back row. That he produced an outfit which has won eight of its nine Tests since November should not be airbrushed away because England could not find a way to burst the chains of an Irish lockdown last weekend.
Full credit to Ireland, but let's not confuse their success in producing two great victories over teams
chasing a world record – England and New Zealand – with what those teams achieved in winning 18 matches on the bounce. Ireland's defeats by Scotland and Wales in the Six Nations illustrate the point.
However, England's limitations in Ireland, and at other stages in their title defence, has provided a clear register of which of Jones' crew should be on the Lions roster this summer. By the same token, those who are not selected to go to New Zealand are also among those who are most at risk of being cut from the England squad as the second stage of the head coach's 2019 World Cup plan gets underway.
What happens with Hartley will set the tone for that second stage. In playing terms the captain has already made way for Jamie George, but his winning record and influence within the squad will make dispensing with his services a very difficult decision. Yet, if Jones is as focused on winning the World Cup as he says, then now is the obvious time to cut the cord.
England will need an understudy to George, and Tommy Taylor and Luke Cowan-Dickie should be allowed to press their cases in Argentina this summer.
George is one of a large contingent of Red Rose players who have written their Lions credentials large over the last year. They should also have four props in contention, with loose-heads Mako Vunipola and Joe Marler, and tight-heads Dan Cole and young Sinckler providing set-piece stability as well as some dynamism in the loose.
Courtney Lawes should have done enough to be included at lock, with George Kruis also a strong contender if he can recover from injury in time to press his case with Saracens as they seek another European and domestic double. If not, Joe Launchbury could make a late run. However, his chances, and those of James Haskell in the back row, could well hinge on whether Wasps succeed in Dublin on Saturday where England failed, when they take on Leinster in the European Cup quarter-finals.
The fight for places in the Lions backrow is one of the fiercest, but Itoje's all-court skills and athleticism at either lock or blindside should make him indispensable, and the same applies to Billy Vunipola's unrivalled powerhouse carrying at No.8.
England's contribution to the Lions backline is harder to predict. However, it is not beyond the bounds of possibility that both scrum-halves, Ben Youngs, above, and Danny Care, could miss out because of their lack of tactical authority – as could George Ford, with the England fly-half condemned as too lightweight, especially in defence, in some quarters.
Youngs' experience with the 2013 Lions could swing it his way, although Care's supercharged appearances off the bench and try-scoring feats during the Six Nations might make him a specialist option that appeals to Warren Gatland.
Another Gatland favourite is Danny Cipriani, and the Lions head coach might be more sold on the playmaking skills of the errant talent he bought to prominence at Wasps, than he is with Ford. Again, what happens at club level over the next couple of months – with Cipriani back in harness with the high-flying Wasps – could prove crucial.
Ford's chances will probably depend on whether Gatland is as sold on the 10–12 partnership he has with Owen Farrell as Eddie Jones is. Farrell was named at centre in the Lions tour party to Australia four years ago, but graduated mainly to fly-half, and it is this versatility – combined with world-class goalkicking – which makes him such an asset.
When it comes to pace and footwork England are also blessed with outside-centres, and both Jonathan Joseph and Daly should give the Lions coaches pause for thought, because none of their rivals boast their speed. The flip side is that Te'o has a hard-running muscularity which could come in handy against an All Black backline which packs plenty of punch.
The competition in the back three means that there might be only one place available to an Englishman, which would mean Mike Brown losing out, and then a tilt between Jack Nowell and Anthony Watson for a wing berth. They are markedly different in style, with the quixotic speed merchant Watson against the more consistent poacher Nowell – although both will need big finishes to secure a place in the tour squad.
Whatever the 2017 Lions selection permutations, Gatland knows he has a rich seam of English talent to tap into. He also knows that in terms of achievement in Northern Hemisphere rugby since the 2015 World Cup the England team that Jones has assembled is unrivalled, irrespective of the big dip in Dublin. Just as Wales earned the lion's share of the 2013 squad, with 15 players named, England have earned the same recognition in 2017.