Jeremy Guscott: Saracens and Leicester Tigers can still fly English flag in Europe

The chances of an English club winning the Heineken Cup have receded, but that's no big reality check because the most that was expected was that a couple would reach the knockout stages. That still looks likely, with Saracens and Leicester benefiting from having Italian sides in their pools.
Realistically, with the much bigger resources the French clubs have, and the strength of the Irish squads – especially Leinster, who can field virtually an all-international line-up – it is hard to believe that an English club can win it for the first time since 2007.
The main talking points from the most recent action were Northampton's heavy home defeat by Leinster, and Connacht's fantastic win in Toulouse. The Irish teams have a habit of peaking when they have to, and overall they plan their campaigns well. However, they are helped because they don't have to go full steam all the time in the Pro 12, and take the opportunity to make sure their key players are in good shape.
As for Northampton, their courage in going on the attack against Leinster on Saturday and succeeding in such sensational fashion will be an amazing boost to their confidence.
In the match at Franklin's Gardens last week it was one of those games for the Saints when everything was poor, and everything went wrong.
I saw that more as an aberration than as a serious defect because, nine times out of ten, Leinster would not beat Northampton by that margin. However, you only have to look at a Leinster team in which nearly all of the starting side have been capped to recognise why they have won the Heineken Cup so many times.
The Connacht victory over Toulouse is one of those stories that any lover of the game wants to read about. It was totally unexpected, and fully deserved, so well done to Pat Lam and his squad.
It is one of those results that highlights why European competition is such a great flagship for Northern Hemisphere rugby. It's all about big atmosphere, big crowds, great rivalries, great knockout games, great finals and great winners – and, as long as everyone remains involved, that should continue.
There is still a real buzz of anticipation about Europe. Take Exeter, who first qualified for the Heineken Cup last year, and managed to do so again this season. Both times they have drawn giants in the pool stages, facing Clermont and Leinster in the last campaign, and Toulon in this one.
At this stage the Chiefs know that they won't win it, but the opportunity to play against the best, and measure themselves against the elite, will fire their ambition – and who knows where that will lead. The signs are that Gloucester and Harlequins will also struggle to reach the last eight. Gloucester will have to knock Munster out of their stride, and on past results you have to favour the Irish side. As for Quins, they were impressive in beating Racing Metro in Nantes last weekend, but their chances of qualifying are slender given that they have Clermont in their group and also lost their first two games.
At the start of the season it looked as if Saracens had assembled a squad capable of competing with the likes of Toulon, Clermont, Toulouse and Leinster, but then they went and lost their Wembley showpiece against Toulouse.
Saracens' record in the tournament is not as good as that of the big guns, and home defeats like that, however narrow, mean that the doubts start to creep in. If you pit English clubs like Sarries against the teams named above there is a big element of doubt that they could recover from a two-try deficit. The same is not true the other way round.
If Saracens are to become one of Europe's leading clubs then they have to put down a marker – and that means doing what Connacht have done, and winning in Toulouse. They got to the last four last season before going out in a disappointing semi-final defeat to the eventual winners, Toulon.
Given their depth and ability to rotate players, Saracens can get to the semi-finals again, especially if they qualify at the top of their group and get a home quarter-final.
We know that Sarries have a skill set that means that they can win an arm wrestle, with their pack capable of getting them into positions where Owen Farrell can kick goals. What we have not seen is enough signs of the backline match-winners that sides like Toulon and Clermont possess. However, if they improve their strike power and the dominoes fall right for them, they are capable of getting to the final.
Leicester still have the pedigree of being a big club in Europe, and when they are at home they will give any of the big guys a very hard game. But have the Tigers still got the forward power to intimidate opponents?
Unless you have got one of those really punishing packs that can back it up in big games time and again, your chances of success in Europe are limited.