JEREMY GUSCOTT
OUTSPOKEN AND UNMISSABLE… EVERY WEEK
THE state of the international game with the autumn series only a few weeks away is that any of the top five teams in the world can beat each other, as New Zealand's comeback proved in the Rugby Championship.
The biggest change is the regularity with which New Zealand have been beaten during the past year. I don't think it has been caused by the Covid disruption as much as simply not having as many worldclass players as they did during their double World Cup winning era in 2011 and 2015.
They no longer have a monopoly on the best players in the world – and England will be a tough prospect with home support. England also have the advantage of not having a huge weight of expectation on their shoulders. The reality is that at the moment New Zealand – like South Africa, France, and Ireland – will be narrow favourites to beat England at Twickenham.
There is no harm in beating a team like New Zealand at any stage in the international cycle, but it will not be lost on Eddie Jones or his team that the closer you get to a World Cup, the bigger the psychological impact of a win over them.
England have a tough start to the autumn against Argentina, who you would expect to be in good form after a Rugby Championship in which they had an away victory over the All Blacks for the first time, and a big home win against Australia. The Pumas also have the benefit of having players at Premiership clubs who have inside information on opponents in the England squad.
However, England will still be in a better place to challenge New Zealand in their third game in the autumn, rather than have it as their first fixture.
It will be great to see Manu Tuilagi back in an England shirt this autumn, because he is still a real force – and New Zealand know from experience just how dangerous he can be. If Tuilagi is picked on form, and in his best position, then definitely he plays at 12 – but he could also play at outside-centre, as he did in the 2019 World Cup when it was often George Ford at 10, Owen Farrell at 12, and Manu at 13.
It is time to fix this England midfield, and to my mind that means picking Farrell at 10, Tuilagi at inside-centre, and, given his experience, Henry Slade at outside-centre.
I feel that Eddie Jones will go for Farrell at fly-half and bring Marcus Smith off the bench for more edge in attack, and I can see why. When Farrell is at his best that ability to fire a flat ball across the front of three players to pick out a runner is impressive, and it works for England, as well as Saracens. We have not seen enough of that authority yet with Smith, and I think Farrell will get more out of the team at the moment.
“It will be great to see Manu Tuilagi back in an England shirt because he is still a real force”
If you want a commanding fullback it has to be Freddie Steward because of his size and physical presence, and his ability in the air. Playing Henry Arundell at 15 is a risk, because the aerial game is so important, and an unfair one given his lack of international experience. However, Arundell is part of a plethora of talent on the wings, with Tommy Freeman, Anthony Watson, Jonny May, Joe Cokanasiga, Jack Nowell, and possibly Ollie Hassell-Collins, all challenging for places.
Cokanasiga should look at the impact that Steward has had for England, and Leicester, whether it's coming onto short balls, or those wider out, by coming onto the ball with such confidence and conviction that he blows defenders away. Joe is a full-on specimen when he is steaming through and scoring tries, and that's what he has to do more of – and he has to do it for Bath first.
It is not long since England went to Australia and won the series, and the best thing about it was coming back to do that after going one-nil down.
What we need to see this autumn is for the England front five to be so aggressive and powerful that they are consistently winning quick ball. The speed of the ball that the England pack produced in that 2019 World Cup semi-final against New Zealand was second to none, and it gave the attack such speed against an unsettled defence.
Since then, where England and a lot of other teams struggle, is if they are running a three-phase attacking move which goes wrong. The biggest issue is the time it takes them to regain their shape and attack again at speed. It is a struggle, and because they take an age to start again, and then play one-off passes, the opposing defence is ready to swamp them.
The smartest thing to do in those circumstances is to kick smartly, and then start to generate more speed again. It sounds simple, but we are humans, so it doesn't always go to plan.
New Zealand are still much better than most teams in terms of individual talent, but I have not seen the All Blacks make as many mistakes – particularly in terms of dropping the ball – as I saw in the Rugby Championship.
However, over the last 15 years New Zealand have shown us that if you capitalise on momentum in Test rugby you can score 20 points and nail the opposition in a 10-minute period. Recently they have not done it as well as before, but they have still shown the capacity to do it.
The All Blacks still have the individual skill-sets to turn things around quicker than the opposition, and that gives them the advantage. It is why they have been able to rebound after their recent defeats to Ireland, South Africa, and Argentina – although we all know that they would prefer not to have to reset.
As a consequence we call those losses a blip, but it has led to the chat that Sam Cane is not the right captain, or the best player in his position, as well as led to the debate about whether Richie Mo'unga or Beauden Barrett is the best fly-half.
That is new territory for New Zealand, and it creates doubt. The only way you can quash that doubt is winning, and that is what makes the game against England next month such a significant match for both teams.
Despite what happened in Australia, the jury is still out on England after another poor Six Nations, and they need to beat Argentina and Japan, and at least run New Zealand and South Africa very close, to establish some momentum.
If New Zealand beat England by a 25-point margin, people will start asking how they can possibly make up that deficit in the 12 months before the World Cup in France. That is why England need a performance of the calibre of their victories over the All Blacks in 2012 and 2019 when they meet at Twickenham for the first time in three years.
