JEREMY GUSCOTT
OUTSPOKEN AND UNMISSABLE… EVERY WEEK
IT is no surprise that there are four French quarter-finalists in the European Cup, including reigning champions Toulouse, last year's beaten finalists La Rochelle, Top 14 leaders Montpellier, and Racing 92, who have been runnersup twice.
France are often strongly represented in Europe – on average they have had three of the eight quarterfinalists since the tournament started in 1996 – and this time they have gone one better.
The reality for the English and Irish clubs – let alone the Scottish and Welsh – is that it is only when you have a pack capable of matching the French that you have a shot at winning the trophy. Before Saracens, Leinster, Munster, or Exeter earned the right to call themselves champions of Europe they learned the hard way, with all of them being flattened by French opposition with their big, grizzly, brutal forward power, and good strong benches, before they achieved success.
The French clubs also have an advantage in terms of the money available to spend on their squads with the salary cap of £10 million twice that of the Premiership, which means that they will not have seen their pay cut by the 25 per cent, like those playing for English clubs.
Of the two Premiership quarterfinalists, Leicester have performed well all season, but Sale have been a bit hit or miss. Sale's narrow win at Bristol in the Round of 16 will give them confidence that they can win on the road, however if they can go to Paris and get a result against Racing it will be great kudos to them. In fact, it would be nothing short of amazing.
When you look at the home advantage enjoyed by Leicester, La Rochelle, Racing, and Munster – who are relocating to the Aviva Stadium in Dublin to face Toulouse because Thomond Park is hosting an Ed Sheeran concert – you would normally expect them to be in the box seats for the semi-finals.
This time it is not that clear cut. Toulouse showed in their knife-edge aggregate win over Ulster at the Kingspan that they have the pedigree to win anywhere, even though they can expect a spirited Munster side to raise their game and test them to the limit.
Munster showed in their win over Exeter in Limerick that they still have the capacity to make life very difficult for any opposing side. Munster are motivated by their great European tradition, and their fans will invade the Aviva in force, but Toulouse are probably too strong in too many places, with X-factor players like half-backs Antoine Dupont and Romain Ntamack capable of breaking any deadlock.
Leinster's visit to Leicester is a great game in the making because the Tigers have become a force again in double quick time thanks to Steve Borthwick coaching them so well, while Leinster are the Irish team in disguise – and we know how good Ireland were in the Six Nations.
Leicester are developing nicely with a strong pack, and with George Ford pulling the strings at fly-half and Freddie Steward back on form and making runs from full-back they have an attacking backline threat.
“If Leicester can beat the four-time winners they will be back as a force in Europe”
Leicester are re-emerging to the extent that Clermont were not really in it over their two-match tussle in the last 16. Clermont may not be at their best, but no-one goes to the Stade Marcel Michelin and beats them there like Tigers did – paving the way for a comfortable victory at home in the return fixture last weekend.
You can also never underestimate the grit and determination of a club like Leicester in front of a sold-out Welford Road, and Ellis Genge and his side will get a huge lift from having 20,000 fans behind them.
The problem the Tigers face is that Leinster are so well drilled, and so accustomed to their patterns by playing together for club and country, that they could play their game with their eyes shut and still create multiple try-scoring chances.
Leinster are superbly organised, and with Johnny Sexton looking as if he is fit and fully firing in the last round against Connacht, they will be absolutely tuned for their trip to the East Midlands. This will be by far the biggest test of Borthwick's new-look Tigers, and if they can beat the four-time Heineken Cup winners, they will be back as a force in Europe.
However, it might be too soon for Tigers, especially as Leinster have so much cohesion, and so many threats – whether Caelan Doris in the back row, Jamison Gibson-Park at scrum-half, Robbie Henshaw at centre, Hugo Keenan at full-back, or James Lowe on the wing.
That is why Leinster are a team that could get away from Tigers if everything clicks, whereas I am not sure that the same can happen the other way round. Even so, it is more likely that there will not be a lot in it, and that it will take a massive effort for Leinster to win against the English league leaders, but they have the capacity to get over the line.
Those two quarter-finals are so difficult to call, but when it comes to game-changers, Leinster are there, and so are Toulouse, so I expect two away wins.
In the other quarter-finals it would be a shock if Sale beat Racing, although they are the only French side I could see wobbling if they got all the way to the final. In the all-French tie it is hard to separate La Rochelle and Montpellier, who were fortunate to beat Harlequins on aggregate by a single point after losing 33-20 at The Stoop.
Given La Rochelle's home advantage, plus their convincing victory over Bordeaux, they should have the edge.
Harlequins could easily have been in the quarter-finals, and they showed again that they are great entertainers with Marcus Smith experiencing the highs and lows that come with high-risk rugby.
One minute Smith made a brilliant break for the move that resulted in Joe Marchant's try, and then had to deal with the disappointment of missing a pressure conversion from a relatively easy position after Louis Lynagh's late try, which would have seen them into the last eight.
Now Harlequins have to concentrate on the Premiership, and retaining their title. That won't be easy because Leicester have sewn up one of the home play-off places, and second-placed Saracens have points in hand over them – however, that didn't stop them last year whether they were home, or away.
When it comes to the European Cup final, which will be played in Marseille at the end of May, if Toulouse get through the quarters and semis it is very difficult to see them being beaten on French soil.
However, if Leinster also go all the way to the final, they are that good that no French side will run away with it.
