Weight of expectation will not lay heavy on the Welsh

IN some ways, Wales have nothing to lose going on a summer tour to South Africa after a below-average Six Nations. After all, when you are beaten by Italy, and your regional teams are not having much impact in either the Heineken Cup or the URC, expectations are not exactly going to be high when you visit the world champions on their own patch.

You could argue that the most important aspect of the tour will be whether they can find what they need to achieve lift-off in the year before the World Cup. There has to be a catalyst for Welsh rejuvenation.

Maybe that will come from head coach Wayne Pivac, but my thinking is that it will probably have to come from the players.

When you think about the current superstars of rugby union you look at the way that Cheslin Kolbe can light up a field for the Springboks, but the great thing about this Wales tour is a chance to also see some magical stuff from finishers who can rival him, like Josh Adams and Louis Rees-Zammit.

However, there is no escaping that Wales are in transition, and nothing says that more than Jonathan Davies being left out of the tour party, while Leicester's in-form flanker Tommy Reffell is a new call-up.

Davies is 34, and George North's recovery from injury gives Pivac plenty of options at centre, with Nick Tompkins, Owen Watkin, and Johnny Williams also included in the squad. Davies can still do a good job at 13 in defence because people do not get outside him easily, so it's a big call to leave out someone of his experience when you are facing the likes of Damian de Allende and Lukhanyo Am.

When South Africa beat New Zealand 31-29 in Australia in last season's Rugby Championship it was a bit out of character because instead of kick-chase they used the talent in their backline. With Am leading the way they attacked the All Blacks by running the ball, and it paid off.

Whatever style they use, Wales can bank on South Africa wanting to smash Europe's fifth best side. It means that Pivac's squad – which is again captained by fly-half Dan Biggar, despite the inclusion of former captain Alun Wyn Jones – will discover how tough international rugby can be, and they have to grow up very quickly, or get totally smashed.

I was in an England side which won three Grand Slams by playing to its forward strengths, and a Bath side that was successful with an allcourt game, and although South Africa can play both ways, they will take route one.

The Springboks will look at the Welsh pack and think that we can have this lot for breakfast, lunch, and tea. Wales will also find out pretty quickly how fit they are, especially with the first two Tests at altitude in Pretoria and Bloemfontein.

Wales are a team that wants to the run the ball, and so they pride themselves on their fitness – and they will need it to hold up because of the South African tactic of bringing on the second-half “bomb squad” to apply forward pressure for the full 80 minutes.

“The Springboks will look at Wales' pack and think ‘we can have this lot for breakfast'”

Wales have a lot of ground to make up. To lose to Italy at home in the last round of the Six Nations was a blow, and I don't accept all the ifs, buts, and maybes, attached to the narrow Welsh defeats by England and France. Nine times out of ten the score line is the right indicator of what happened in a match, and if you're going to improve you have to be honest about the parts of your game that are not up to scratch.

It is a pity that Ross Moriarty and Aaron Wainwright are ruled out by injury, but Wales are not short of quality back row forwards with Taulupe Faletau and Josh Navidi available, and the veteran Dan Lydiate fit again after a long absence. On top of that they have two promising open-sides in Shane Basham and Reffell.

Basham has earned a lot of praise because he has played well since coming into the side, but he is not yet in the same league as Sam Warburton. However, at 22 he's going to get better – although I'm not sure he will last the course if he continues to play like his name! At 6ft and 15st (95kg) Basham is not that big, and he is going to have to learn to play smart if he's going to have a lasting impact.

The presence of Tomas Francis and Wyn Jones at prop will be crucial against the Springbok heavyweights, and the same applies to Alun Wyn Jones and Adam Beard in the second row.

Overall, I'm not sure that Pivac has got the same amount of raw ability to work with as Warren Gatland had during his time as Wales head coach, but there is still plenty of talent in the tour squad.

There is plenty of competition at scrum-half between Gareth Davies, Tomos Williams, and Kieran Hardy, and although Biggar is the starting fly-half, the return of Gareth Anscombe and Rhys Patchell gives Wales depth at both 9 and 10.

I like Nick Tompkins and the way he does a job for Saracens, although he still finding his feet in international rugby. At Saracens he learned his trade at inside-centre from Brad Barritt, and I like his professionalism. Tompkins might drop a couple of balls, but he's always grafting, and he usually delivers.

Pivac has the option of picking North in midfield again, although I've always believed he is better on the wing, and he also has Adams, Rees-Zammit, Alex Cuthbert, and Liam Williams vying for places in the back three.

Adams is a world-class eight out of ten strike runner, Williams still loves the challenge, and Cuthbert has had a new lease of life. Rees-Zammit has found his second season at international level harder after hitting the ground running to make a brilliant start. It was inevitable that he would be more heavily marked, but he has the pace and skill to leave his imprint on this tour.

Even so, outside the Wales camp, the expectation is zero – which means a 3-0 series defeat. If they lose any of the Tests by less than 20 to 30 points it will be a surprise. In my view, anything better than that, and they will have done well.