JEREMY GUSCOTT
OUTSPOKEN AND UNMISSABLE… EVERY WEEK
IF we go back to The Rugby Paper round table in January, most of us thought that it was a toss-up between France and Ireland for the title, and that England would probably be third. It was based on the autumn performances, and it proved to be a pretty good yardstick.
I struggle a bit with people's expectations of England, because you have to watch an awful lot of rugby in order to have the authority to pick a side. People can say that this player or that player would make a difference, but I don't know whether those international class players exist in big numbers in the Premiership.
For instance, I mentioned Adam Radwan as a possibility on the wing, because we know him for his electrifying pace and ability to take advantage of a gap. But we probably don't really know about his defending or attacking from kicks, or his tackling, so my view was based on what I've see of him in a pure attacking sense in a few matches.
The real debate is whether there are enough players at the top of the club game in England who merit automatic selection. International selection should not have to be that hard, but when not enough players are holding up their hands and saying that they are way ahead of the rest of the field, it becomes much more difficult.
There is just not enough talent playing well enough to guarantee their place in the side, and that is why I think that Eddie Jones is an easy target.
As for the campaign as a whole, we saw a resurgence from Jamie George at hooker, and Maro Itoje still reaches for high standards – although sometimes it is not clear whether he is pulling people up to his heights, or being dragged down to the mean average.
England are still looking for another lock to combine with Itoje, and while the props did well enough overall, we did not see a dominant back row performance. Sam Simmonds did enough to make his presence felt, even though he's not the biggest, while Alex Dombrandt is still getting accustomed to the England way.
Part of the problem is that it's not really clear what the England way is. In attack we cannot identify the changes that Simon Amor made and, while Mark Gleeson has only been in the camp a short time, it's not been possible to identify a shape to the way England play.
By comparison, France have an all-court way of playing, with big, athletic forwards who make ground with great support play, while Ireland play with a really solid attacking shape. This means that players coming into the France and Ireland sides as a result of injury or form fit in immediately in terms of feel and familiarity.
However, if you swap players like Manu Tuilagi for Joe Marchant at centre for England there is a different dynamic, and it would be the same if you brought in Joe Cokanasiga for Jack Nowell on the wing.
I would like to see two or three really aggressive, sizeable ball-carriers in the back five of the England pack. Itoje is decent, but we have not yet seen Dombrandt make the same impact for England that he does for Harlequins.
“There is just not enough talent playing well enough to guarantee their place in the side”
Tom Curry is not quite big enough, and although you've got Alfie Barbeary and Jack Willis, who are good in a Wasps environment, England need some really strong carriers of the sort that Billy Vunipola can be from a standing start. At his best Billy was very rarely knocked backwards, and when at the 2019 World Cup you added Curry and Sam Underhill, as well as George and Mako Vunipola, England were making good ground.
In the backline, England are more dynamic with Harry Randall at scrum-half than they are with Ben Youngs, whose reaction times are a bit slower. Raffi Quirke and Alex Mitchell are also challenging, so, much as Youngs might want to go to the World Cup, it might not work out. There is enough of a delay at the breakdown to make you question why it is so slow.
England should be realistic, because, despite the energy and commitment they showed in the last two games of the tournament, you felt that they would lose because they weren't good enough. It is worth remembering that if a couple more passes had stuck for France they would have beaten England by 20 points.
I thought that at fly-half Marcus Smith gave a good account of himself, and he edges George Ford at the moment in his running ability and attacking threat, and as a goalkicker. But I'm interested to know what impact Owen Farrell has on the side when he returns to international action, and whether he lifts them with his presence. Farrell's personality, and his goal-kicking and distribution, are good, but his carrying at 12 is not as impressive.
Even so, Jones' intention in the autumn was to field a Smith-Farrell 10-12 combination before Farrell was injured. This has limitations, because, although Farrell has the skill-set, he does not have size and pace at inside centre – but Ford and Farrell dovetailed at 10-12, so there is no reason why Smith and Farrell could not work.
The other alternative would be Jones putting Farrell at 10, and then Tuilagi at 12, and Henry Slade/Joe Marchant at 13 – and I don't think anyone would be surprised, because I'm not sure that Marcus has played so well that he is the automatic choice at 10.
England end this tournament in a bit of a limbo because they are not getting the results to make them a threat, and they are not losing badly enough to make people think it's all over. It's a fine line they are treading, and if they lose in Australia, then more questions will be asked, and the more the pressure will increase.
However, there is a big opportunity to take the squad to Australia this summer and say this is where our World Cup push starts. South Africa, New Zealand, France and Ireland are the top teams now, but if England go to Australia and repeat what they did in 2016, it could still happen for them.
As for Jones, it would be a waste of money to pay him off now. He got England to a final in 2019, and I think he should be afforded the same opportunity again. I don't see who can come in and do a Rassie Erasmus, especially as England do not have as good a squad of players as South Africa did when Erasmus took over as Springbok head coach 18 months before the last World Cup.
There is also time for some England players missing from the Six Nations to hit form – and with Tuilagi, Cokanasiga, and two big ball-carrying forwards, it would be a different dynamic.
