Run the Boks tired and Lions can still triumph | Jeremy Guscott
CAPE TOWN, SOUTH AFRICA - JULY 31: Robbie Henshaw of the Lions passes the ball during the 2nd test match between South Africa Springboks and the British & Irish Lions at Cape Town Stadium on July 31, 2021 in Cape Town, South Africa. (Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)
IT'S a straight shootout next week and the Lions will always have hope in a two horse race, but this was a complete role reversal from the First Test. There are so many similarities between what happened to the Springboks last week to what happened to the Lions yesterday and it just shows what a huge mental, emotional challenge elite rugby and elite sport is.
Just imagine the colossal pressure that the South Africans would have been under at home having lost the second half 19-5 last week. While they aren't mixing with the public because they are in a bubble, there is still social media available for all the players in the South African squad to look at.
As well as the support they are getting I'm sure there would have been some pretty raw opinions and choice words about their First Test performance. They carried all that with them into the game and turned it around hugely. They are riding a wave right now and there's not too much they need to change.
The Lions, on the other hand, have been given the biggest whack across the face they could have imagined. In fact it's somewhere worse than that because a whack across the face is a quick, sharp pain that you can quickly shed; they've had one between the legs and it's going to ache and ache for some time and the only way it's going to go is if they win next week.
South Africa have relief whereas the Lions will be hugely disappointed because they know they could have closed out the series – and at half-time it looked like there was every chance of that happening. Just more of the same from the Lions in the second 40 and they could have won that game. Yet just as it happened the week before, when Luke Cowan-Dickie scored straight after half-time, the Boks took control of this game. They put the pressure on by winning a couple of penalties to get into the Lions 22 and then a lovely cross-kick from Handre Pollard to Makazole Mapimpi, who stayed outside of Anthony Watson before cutting inside to slip Stuart Hogg's tackle and score a beautifully executed try. They didn't look back after that.
This week will all be about the Lions' management getting them in the right emotional state of mind to go out and give their very best – and not give away unnecessary penalties and make unforced errors.
South Africa got a lot of rest in the first half because of that handbags moment which seemed to take a lifetime and while the referee's decisions were good, some of them were a long time in the making. Tempo must be high right from the beginning in next week's decider so Ali Price must have a really good shout of coming back in at scrumhalf. Conor Murray played well in the first half – his kicks were precise – but in the second half the Lions well and truly lost the aerial battle and weren't quick enough from breakdown to breakdown.
I would love to see more directness from the Lions. On at least a couple of occasions they were just outside the 22 and kicking it up in the air. Why not try to play some rugby with ball in hand and really try to take it to the Boks? The Lions need to push them to tiredness. The Boks are just getting up to match fitness but I thought they were helped by that rest in the first half. I'm not sure they would have been so strong fitness-wise if they hadn't had that, and if the Lions had forced them to make more tackles.
So Price is one consideration for me and Liam Williams must have a very good chance of coming into that back three – but where I'm not sure. Most obvious would be a swap with Stuart Hogg at full-back but all of the back-three players will feel they are under threat because they weren't dominating the aerial game. If you don't play well and you give away silly, unforced errors your position is not guaranteed. The Lions lost the second half 21-0 so nearly every single one of those guys may be fearing the axe. Statistically there's very little chance of Warren Gatland dropping four players, but I can see two or three at least being replaced.
Wyn Jones was first choice at loosehead to start the First Test and if he is fit to play that will be a consideration. The second rows will remain the same but the back row looks like it needs more energy.
In the end, all the momentum was with the South Africans because the penalty count was so high on the Lions side – 15-10. Those are five more momentum swinging changes that not only hurt you physically but hurt you mentally. And every time the ball went up in the air and wasn't conclusively won by the Lions, they were more energy-sapping moments.
There is every chance they can switch it around because they have to be pumped and they have to own what they do next week individually and collectively. Every single player who gave an unnecessary penalty away has to ask themselves how much did I contribute to this lost.
They've all got a big role to play this week. The ones who are picked must perform and the ones who aren't have to stay there and support them. There's no reason whatsoever why they can't turn around that difference and win the game next week.
