Jeff Probyn: Italians have a lot to gain by forming their own league

The comments of Italian Rugby Federation (FIR) president Alfredo Gavazzi  that they may remove their two professional teams from the Rabo Direct Pro12, could be a positive sign in these dark days of European rugby.
The fact that the Italians seem to be thinking of starting an eight team premier league with accompanying academies is a   positive step for the future of any European competition, although it could cause problems for the other countries in the Pro12 league.
For countries with established club structures but only a limited number of players, regional or provincial rugby can work to strengthen that country's ability to compete with the big boys by concentrating talent – but it comes at a price.
That price is the damage it can do to the club structure by taking the money that would otherwise be invested in the development of the whole sport. For example, the Italian FIR spend 40 per cent of their budget on the two professional teams.
However, the Italians have made the step-up to tier 1 rugby in relatively recent times and despite surprisingly having more clubs (784) than Scotland (251), Ireland (221) and Wales (250) put together, are yet to develop an elite clubs structure to help underpin their two professional teams.
By possibly pulling out of the Rabo and concentrating on a home league with promotion and relegation, the Italians could improve the strength of their game at home and develop more elite players.
Once the eight team premiership settles down and the level of competition reaches a high enough standard, the top four from the Italian league could legitimately join a European competition on the same merit basis as the English and French clubs.
To help improve the strength of Italian rugby, a cross border competition at all levels could be easily be established with the French at very little cost to either, as most of the rugby in France is played in the south which borders northern Italy where the majority of the Italian clubs are located.
Despite a large number of clubs, Italy still lags behind all but Scotland in player numbers, making it imperative that they get a level of success in the club game to drive up membership which, in turn, will help strengthen their national team.
That can only be good news for the Six Nations Championship and all who play in it by making it a more competitive tournament which could then help the Northern Hemisphere countries close the gap on the SANZAR countries and potentially raise its value, thereby increasing revenues for all.
Where that would leave the Irish and Scots if the Italians did pull-out and the Welsh regions followed through with their threat to also withdraw, is in a very difficult place.
If the Celts can actually stick together it could be possible for them to continue with the current Pro12 league and possibly fill the void left by an Italian withdrawal with an extra new Welsh region, possibly based around Pontypridd. And, if the SRU felt they could afford it, a new Scottish region formed in the traditional rugby hotspot around the Borders.
If not, it could be that each of the countries would have to reassess whether to keep regions or go back to club leagues.
Returning to a club league structure would make a European competition easier to organise as each country would be represented by the top teams in each of their respective leagues.
It may be that each country will have to choose what is a viable number of teams to have in their home leagues and that could have an impact on the number of sides that each country allow to qualify for the European competition. As each country would qualify in the same way, it would be reasonable to assume that each league would want a similar number of entrants and that could force a reduction in the number of places for teams from the Premiership and the Top14.
Without Italy and Wales the Pro12 league could no longer continue and the game would have to return to a club-based structure in all countries with a possibility of damaging consequences for all.
What has to be remembered is that the Pro12 league was formed to improve the standard of competition for all the participating countries. These countries individually were unable to run or afford fully professional club leagues of a high enough standard to maintain and improve their international rankings.
Realistically, that hasn't changed and even in the relatively financially rich France and England, the professional clubs are still reliant on generous benefactors and Federation/ Union grants to survive.
Although the same thing could happen in Wales, Ireland and Scotland, the Unions and clubs have far less money available to run a sufficient number of professional clubs to form a worthwhile league and, as a consequence, would have to compromise on numbers as the Italians have.
What makes Italy slightly different is that many of their top teams are effectively owned by large corporations (similar to how clubs operate in Japan) and those companies will probably cover a certain amount of player recruitment costs as clubs are developed in to European brands.
With Wales, Ireland and Scotland, the Pro12 can survive the loss of Italy, the question that no-one wants to answer is,
can Wales, Ireland and Scotland survive the loss of the Pro12?