JEREMY GUSCOTT
OUTSPOKEN AND UNMISSABLE… EVERY WEEK
Assuming that the Wales v England game in Cardiff on Saturday is played despite the threatened Welsh squad strike action, we're looking forward to what is a possible play-off for fourth and fifth places in this year's Six Nations tour nament.
Yet, it is not so long ago that England came back from their summer tour of Australia with a 2-1 series win, whereas two years ago Wales won the Six Nations title.
Both teams have fallen a long way since then, but England had a nice start to this tour nament by having two home games in the first two rounds. In their opening match against Scotland they created enough opportunities to win the game, but their defence was very average and it resulted in them conceding four tries as well as a number of clean breaks.
I don't believe that England's victory in last weekend's game against Italy was ever going to tell us how much they have improved. It was a win – which is a plus – but it was not overwhelming.
Among the biggest disappointments was the amount of ball England kicked away within 30 metres of the Italian try line. It is crucial for the confidence of away teams like Italy when you stop a team scoring through good defence – but in England's case, it was more that they were just giving the ball away, because kicking it in those areas made little sense.
The Marcus Smith cross-kick against Scotland which created a Max Malins try was very accurate, and it also made sense because, even if they lost the ball in-goal, a drop-out would ensure England retained possession. However, the kick-and-hope tactics against Italy smacked of a lack of confidence from the English backline in their ability to score tries ball in hand.
In a way the Italy game is still a Six Nations bye, because you should win it – although the nature of that win will be gover ned by how well Italy play. It was also a building blocks game for Steve Borthwick, with the new England head coach able to get his team more together by building cohesion and really ramping up the intensity.
However, after seeing Ireland play France the day before, with the two teams ranked one and two in the world putting on an 80-minute highlights reel, England's win over Italy was not a great comparison.
Even so, there were a number of positives for Borthwick. The first was that Ollie Lawrence played like a centre, and did his job of getting over the gain-line regularly – and it was unfortunate that he lost the ball after making a powerful break in which he ran over Tommaso Allan.
England's lineout catch-and-drive also functioned pretty well against Italy – which is a crucial part to get right – and Jack Willis was very good at flanker. Ellis Genge played well, Ollie Chessum continues to impress, and Lewis Ludlam is willing to empty the tank, giving every ounce of effort.
At No.8 Alex Dombrandt is still trying to get the timing of inter national rugby, and to have the same impact he has at club level – and the longer it takes, the more chance he gives other players to challenge him. However, there was improvement at scrum-half from Jack van Poortvliet, and Alex Mitchell also injected energy and produced quick ball when he came on.
England have to remember that their hardest opponents, France and Ireland, are still to come. The forwards have to learn from the full commitment shown by Chessum and Genge to winning the collision and giving England front-foot ball – because they need the same attitude from the entire pack for the remaining three games of this Six Nations campaign.
So far, it has been underwhelming from both England and Wales. They are playing so averagely that they need a big boost of confidence, but Wales are in a worse place. This is not just about the threatened strike action, but also because on the field they are struggling to put the opposition under pressure for any length of time.
I'm not sure that the Welsh expectation and euphoria which often surrounds England coming to Cardiff will be sufficient to inspire a side which has only scored two tries in this tour nament. No one looks overly threatening in this Wales line-up, although the news that Louis Rees-Zammit could be back will be a big boost.
Wayne Pivac's dismissal as head coach was prompted by that home loss to Italy at the end of a bad 2022 Six Nations campaign and, although he papered over the cracks on the summer tour of South Africa, the home autumn defeat by Georgia was a loss too far. At the moment, England probably have a better blend of youth and experience than Warren Gatland has inherited on his return to Wales, where there is a sense that a big injection of young players is needed. The only difficulty is that the talent pool of youngsters may not be quite as big in either Wales, or England, as people think, and the European Cup indicates that they are trailing behind France, Ireland and South Africa.
Most of Gatland's old guard forwards have not been replaced because the talent pool is a bit shallow and, despite the arrival of Christ Tshiunza (6ft 6ins) in the back row alongside Jac Morgan (5ft 11ins) and Tommy Reffell (6ft), it does not give the Welsh the heft of most Six Nations opponents.
In the second row, Adam Beard is a very big man and Dafydd Jenkins could be a bit of a green shoot, but outside Dan Biggar at fly-half and Josh Adams, who is still a good winger, they look a bit raw – although Rio Dyer has promise.
By comparison, England have a couple of new gems in Chessum and Freddie Steward, there's a three-way contest at scrum-half (van Pootvliet, Mitchell, and Raffi Quirke), competition at fly-half between Owen Farrell and Marcus Smith, the promise of Lawrence, the experience of Henry Slade, and the skills of Malins.
Ollie Hassell-Collins has been a bit quiet on the wing, and has to go looking for the ball more, while we have yet to discover how good Henry Arundell could be. We know what Arundell can do given the ball in space, but in the inter national game there are greater demands in defence, and in the air, and we will see how he goes in those areas.
After one loss and one win England's standard is about 6/10, and to get to7/10 it would have to be a convincing win in Cardiff. Wales are barely 5/10 after the losses to Ireland and Scotland, and it is a question of whether they can rise to the occasion.
Looking ahead, the likelihood is that England will beat Wales, but then lose to France and Ireland.
