JEREMY GUSCOTT
OUTSPOKEN AND UNMISSABLE… EVERY WEEK
WARREN Gatland has been very successful throughout his coaching career, and it would be a brave call to say that he cannot turn Wales round after a slump which saw them lose three of their four home Tests in the Autumn series.
Whether he can do it in time for Wales to make a significant impact in the two big tournaments to come in 2023, the Six Nations at the start of the year and the World Cup at the end of it, is a more difficult question. However, it is amazing how some coaches can get more out of players than others, and I guess those who can, like Gatland, are called ‘supercoaches'.
Gatland has taken a calculated risk by coming back as Welsh head coach only three years after leaving the job, but you cannot take away what he has achieved so far in a career which has spanned being head coach of Wasps, Wales, and the Lions.
He must feel that he can make a difference, because he certainly did not have to take the Welsh job. He could have looked at other offers in Japan, the USA, and England – and that must mean there is something special about his relationship with Wales that really works well for him. His track-record of two World Cup semi-finals and a quarter-final with Wales, as well as three Six Nations Grand Slams is pretty good going considering the limited resources that were available, and Gatland thinks he can do something similar in his second stint in charge.
Under Wayne Pivac it was up and down, with Wales winning the Six Nations title in 2021, and doing well last summer in South Africa. However, two fifth-place finishes in the Six Nations (2020 and 2022) – including a first home defeat by Italy last season – followed by the poor Autumn results, saw Pivac sacked and Gatland recalled.
In his first term Gatland's Wales team was labelled as playing “Warrenball”, because of the way he used big, powerful backs like Jamie Roberts, Alex Cuthbert, and George North to break the defensive line. With talented back row forwards like Sam Warburton and Justin Tipuric providing continuity Wales made headway – even though their push for World Cup glory in 2011 came unstuck when Warburton was sent off for a tip tackle early in the semi-final against France.
When that team stayed together, you thought that at the 2015 World Cup they were ripe to do really well, but they were hamstrung by a long list of injuries. It meant that despite beating England to get out of the pool they eventually lost narrowly to South Africa in the quarter-finals.
In 2019 in Japan they lost even more narrowly to the Springboks in the semi-finals, which might explain why Gatland feels he has unfinished business as Wales coach.
“One question is whether Alun Wyn Jones can make it through to the 2023 World Cup”
There is no reason to say that he cannot climb the heights again. Dan Biggar is a quality player, a good, seasoned No.10 who in pressure situations can put a team where it needs to be to win a game. The Welsh have always had a conveyor belt of scrum-halves, and with Tomos Williams, Kieran Hardy, and the veteran Rhys Webb, they have competition for the shirt, although maybe not the exceptional No.9s they have had before.
In terms of the rest of the backline the Norths and Cuthberts won't be what they were, but Gatland will know that they can still be influential, and he will also want to maximise on Louis Rees-Zammit's talent.
However, what Gatland also knows is that any team that does not have forward power has got ground to make up, and Wales fall into that category. I like what I've seen of Wyn Jones at loose-head, although he is currently injured, Adam Beard is a big, rugged, workmanlike lock, and Justin Tipuric and Taulupe Faletau should still have a couple of years left at international level.
One of the big questions facing Gatland is whether Alun Wyn Jones can make it through to the 2023 World Cup. The great centurion second row showed he can still do it against Australia, but at 37 can he do it regularly enough?
What Wales need urgently is for a few young forwards to come through and give the team the momentum which makes space for the backs to utilise. A player like blindside/lock Christ Tshiunza might have the athleticism and size for international rugby, but Gatland has to blood young forwards sooner rather than later to find out what they've got.
Gatland understands the importance of winning the next game, and is unlikely to make the same mistake as Eddie Jones in finishing one World Cup and then starting to prepare for the next one.
There's been growing criticism of the Welsh 60-cap rule, which prevents players who have fewer than 60 caps being eligible to play for Wales if they move to clubs outside the country. The rule came in during Gatland's previous tenure, and he might now have to make a case for it to be turned around.
If you have a pool of players as small as Wales, you understand the principle behind the rule, but I don't believe that you have to make it a policy statement. I see no embarrassment in Wales turning that around and saying that in “special circumstances” which enable the team to be more competitive, the 60-cap rule can be suspended.
Overall, these rules come into question when a national team is struggling, but when it is the other way round, they do not.
Gatland will have kept a close eye on the Wales coaching set-up since he left, and has made some changes already. I am quite surprised he
has let Stephen Jones go as attack coach, but Mark Jones could take over, and he has done an apprenticeship which includes spending time with the Crusaders in New Zealand.
Gatland is an alchemist when it comes to putting together effective coaching teams, having done it with Wasps, Wales, and the Lions – and I'm sure he will select the right people. He had a great relationship with Shaun Edwards, and the word is that he's lining up Paul Gustard as his defence coach. That makes sense because Gustard was one of the catalysts of the ‘wolfpack' defence that inspired Saracens to such success.
Gatland has an amazing pedigree and a proven track record, and he obviously sees enough in the Wales squad at the moment, and the young players coming through, to convince him he can pick them up.
It would be remarkable if he gets Wales past the 2023 World Cup quarter-finals – but he is looking at a five year contract, and turning them back into a real force in that period. If Warren Gatland succeeds, Wales will be well-placed by the time the 2028 World Cup comes around.
