JEREMY GUSCOTT
OUTSPOKEN AND UNMISSABLE… EVERY WEEK
EDDIE Jones should pick the best England team he can in order to start the autumn series against Argentina with a win. Argentina will be strong up front, physical all round, and will have plenty of confidence going into the match at Twickenham today having beaten both New Zealand and Australia in this season's Rugby Championship.
Their success is reflected by Pumas players being hot property all over the world with Premiership clubs leading the race to sign top Argentine internationals.
Jones has to counter the advantage the Pumas have of being in camp together in the Rugby Championship until six weeks ago by getting an England side, which has not played a Test together for almost four months, up to running speed as soon as possible.
By now, Jones should have learned the lesson that picking players who have not been at their best in the Premiership, let alone at international level, is a very risky game. That is why Jones should have picked Owen Farrell at fly-half, not at inside centre, after he was passed fit to play following some concussion issues which kept him away from England's Jersey training camp.
Farrell played well in the Premiership until the concussion but he needs top end Test competition from the start of the autumn series, and the same is true of Manu Tuilagi, who I would have started at 12 with Henry Slade at outside-centre. Jones also has the benefit of knowing that if Farrell has any further setbacks that there is good fly-half cover because Marcus Smith is no longer an international novice.
There should also be no surprises against Japan on Saturday, because England have been given all the notice they need from the narrow Japanese loss to New Zealand in Tokyo that they are going to keep the ball alive as much as they can. Jones' team will also have registered that Japan are going to be a handful because of their speed of ball and the precision tries they scored against the All Blacks. What England have to do to counteract Japan is to overpower them. This means being direct, forthright, and using physical strength to mount intense pressure – and definitely not making the mistake of trying to play Japan at their own game.
New Zealand are one of the few teams who would back themselves to out-speed Japan, and it came close to backfiring on them, so England should try to keep it tight. Japan are bringing over a really fast, skilful team, and they remind me of the 2019 World Cup side which got to the quarter-finals by beating Ireland and Scotland.
The Japanese team are very fit, very accurate, and they have a goal-kicker in fly-half Takuya Yamasawa who hardly missed a shot at goal – and it took a lot for New Zealand to break them down.
So, England's approach must be no-nonsense. They should play off the set-piece at every opportunity and use planned moves of three phases, but everything very direct. We have not seen enough of these strike moves, and England must unleash the best they have, whether from off-the-top line-outs or from the base of the scrum.
“England must overpower Japan by being direct, forthright and using physical strength”
Japan are technically very good, but if England use a combination of power and smoke-and-mirrors off first phase, then Billy Vunipola has the chance to pick-up from No.8 and run at their fly-half.
I would make as few changes as possible from the England team that clinched the summer series against Australia by winning the third Test, and would look at the first two Autumn matches against Argentina and Japan as if they were the harder two pool games at a World Cup.
The Pumas represent a big opening game, and then you have something of a ‘wild card' match against Japan. That gives England two games to start firing before they get to the knock-out stage, with the last two games against New Zealand and South Africa.
New Zealand are showing their vulnerability because they don't have the quality they had in 2011 and 2015. Back then they would have beaten Japan by 30 points, and the number of Tests they have lost over the last year shows they are not at the same level they were five years ago. Now, it's even become a bit of a relief for the NZ public when the All Blacks win.
They will be building towards playing England at Twickenham, and if New Zealand lose I hope they don't use the excuse they did in 2012 that they were ‘too tired'.
For England to win not just the game against the All Blacks, but the other three, they will have to raise the bar.
Jack van Poortvliet will have to pick up where he left off against the Wallabies in the summer and take it to a higher level given the fierce competition there is now at scrum-half.
In the back row, Tom Curry always plays well, and with Ollie Chessum injured Jack Willis should get the chance to show how exceptional he can be. England also need the 2022 vintage Billy Vunipola to show he is still world class.
When England finish their Autumn series against South Africa at the end of this month, they will be facing a world champion team which will already have played the Six Nations champions, France.
If France beat South Africa in Marseille on Saturday they will rubber stamp themselves as favourites to win the 2023 World Cup. However, we could also discover if there are any French fault lines, because the Springboks have impressed me as very professional, with that priceless ability to be both relaxed and very focused at the same time.
South Africa have got the personnel to play any game they want because their pack is full-on and their backs are very dangerous. What will be intriguing is if France start to show the pressure of the expectation, and the telling factor of whether the French pack can dent the South African pack. If France win by 10 points against the Springboks it is a very big statement, because they are unlikely to meet again until the World Cup.
England need to make a similar impact on South Africa. With the forward power South Africa bring off the bench they can be a dominating team, and England have to show they are a force to reckoned with in all departments when they clash at Twickenham.
