Peter Jackson column: The Welsh Lions face mauling by England

The last Lions Test team contained ten Welshmen and two English.  The numbers for the next one could very easily turn out to be the other way round. At this rate Warren Gatland, still leading a pitifully small field of runners for the job of head coach despite presiding over another damaging exercise in New Zealand, will be rather better equipped when he returns there next year.
Unless Eddie Jones does a volte face on his refusal to be considered for the Lions, Gatland stands to inherit the players whom his Australian counterpart has made the second best team in the world.    As ironies go, a Wales coach relying on England to beat the All Blacks would be hard to surpass.
Of the ten Welshmen chosen by Gatland for the series clincher in Sydney three years ago over the poorest Australian team for a generation, perhaps only one – George North – would keep his place were the New Zealand tour to start next month.
Three of the other nine – Mike Phillips, Richard Hibbard, Adam Jones – fell off the radar a while back.  Four more – Jonathan Davies, Jamie Roberts, Alun-Wyn Jones, Dan Lydiate – are all in the process of being superceded by superior English opposite numbers.
Jones' status as the best lock in the British Isles post-Paul O'Connell is already being undermined by a trio of the finest second-rows produced in England since the advent of Martin Johnson, Simon Shaw and Danny Grewcock. George Kruis, Joe Launchbury and the wondrous Maro Itoje are so good that Jones may find himself playing fourth fiddle.
Even the outstanding Taulupe Faletau will be hard pushed to prove himself a better starting No.8 than Billy Vunipola. The tenth Welsh member of the last Lions, Leigh Halfpenny, will have every chance of remaining at full-back provided he shows no long-term effects from missing the entire season bar the closing fortnight.
Sam Warburton, absent because of injury from the Sydney Test against the Wobblies, has been the supreme openside wing forward in the British game. He will be aware of the challenge to his position in the back-row and that Dylan Hartley's formidable leadership means the Welshman's captaincy is no longer beyond dispute.
Dan Biggar may have perfected the aerial art of the kick-chase but Beauden Barrett exposed enough flaws in his game to suggest that in Lions terms he could find himself behind Johnny Sexton, George Ford and the under-rated Finn Russell in the pecking order at No. 10.
The swing away from Wales to England in a Lions context reflects how their respective fortunes have changed.   Since last autumn, when Wales did to Stuart Lancaster what Iceland's Viking footballers did to Roy Hodgson last week, England have won nine on the trot.
Wales have lost their last five, embarrassing by their standards but not as embarrassing as conceding 27 tries including six to the Chiefs' reserves. Gatland would argue, no doubt, that a new style brings teething problems, a case of short-term pain for long-term gain.
Having accepted, however belatedly, that there had to be a more artful alternative to winning Test matches than bashing the opposition, Gatland has barely got that off the drawing board and into operation than he will be delegating the next stage of its supervision to someone else.
A condition of the Lions' job as head honcho requires the successful candidate to take a year off from national affairs to study the bigger picture. Wales have made it clear they will grant Gatland leave of absence next season which means Rob Howley and/or Robin McBryde taking caretaker charge now that each has been granted long-term contractual extensions.
Jones has made it equally clear he will not be asking his employers at Twickenham for time off to run the Lions, whom he famously helped ambush on Australia's behalf in 2001 when the best group of British and Irish players of the professional era contrived to lose the series 2-1.
If he were to ask them, they would surely refuse on the basis that nothing must distract Jones from the ultimate goal of winning the World Cup in 2019. The WRU will defend their willingness to let Gatland take a year's sabbatical by claiming it will improve him as a coach despite historical evidence to the contrary.
That decision appears to have left them in something of a cleft stick. Since making it their team has regressed, at a rate which has dismayed many and disillusioned more than a few.
They have also either forgotten or ignored what happened when another Wales coach from New Zealand led the Lions, to Australia in 2001.  Graham Henry found that it fractured relationships with some Welsh players and led directly to his giving Wales up as a bad job halfway through the following Six Nations.
While one week can be a very long time in the political arena, six months in rugby amounts to an eternity.
Unless Wales improve, Test Lions from the red Dragon brotherhood will be thin on the ground this time next year.