Nick Cain: Gatland must think French

There are not many Lions coaches who go into a tour on the back of a vintage Six Nations, and Warren Gatland is no exception. The 2013 Six Nations has thrown up more questions than it has provided answers, and although
Gatland says he has two-thirds of his squad picked already, it is hard to see from here how he has that many – especially if he takes form as his main selectorial measure, rather than past glories.
The most striking lesson from Lions history is that overlooking form players is almost always the biggest self-inflicted wound of the lot. It is courting disaster because of the corrosive effect it has on squad morale, and the drawback of having underperforming players trading on reputation to hold down Lions Test places.
One of the most difficult issues Gatland has to wrestle with has been the failure of a large number of the 2009 Test Lions to perform consistently well enough to re-establish their claims to tour Australia. The tide of emotion propelling Brian O'Driscoll towards the Lions captaincy is a case in point.
O'Driscoll was on fire against Wales, producing a superb try-scoring pass for Simon Zebo and then drilling over the line himself from short range. However, the longer the tournament went on, the more BOD looked his 34 years. In the Irish defeats by England and Scotland, and in the draw against France, he was on the periphery, whereas previously he would have been at the centre of those contests.
The signs of the physical toll the years of putting his body on the line for Leinster and Ireland have had on O'Driscoll were there in the frequent spells on the touchline for running repairs during the tournament, and the idea of a veteran Lions captain having to be nursed through a tour is not the best starting point. Perhaps BOD still has it in him to run the Aussies ragged, but the Six Nations suggests otherwise.
Others who played in the Test series against South Africa four years ago and have been inconsistent this season are Jamie Heaslip, Jamie Roberts, Rob Kearney, Gethin Jenkins and Mike Phillips. Welsh scrum-half Phillips got steadily stonger as the Six Nations progressed, Kearney is much more adventurous for Leinster than he is for Ireland, and Jenkins had a red-letter day dominating Martin Castrogiovanni in Rome – aided by the scrummaging power of hooker Richard Hibbard – but, Phillips apart, all of them seemed to have acres of ground to make up until Jenkins and  Roberts did so yesterday.
The erratic selection data from the Six Nations has put an even greater premium on Gatland casting his net outside the confines of the tournament, and, for me, all roads lead to the Top 14, and especially Toulon.
Gatland may not be convinced. The Lions coach said in reference to the Bayonne-based Phillips' lack of peak fitness in the autumn that the slow pace of France's top league, and the lack of cutting-edge conditioning at French clubs, is not ideal preparation for international rugby. It is, therefore, even less ideal for playing against a Wallaby side weaned on the hard, fast pitches Down Under and used to playing at the frenetic pace of the Super 15.
However, the match a fortnight ago when Toulon hosted Toulouse in a top-of-the-table clash at the Stade Mayol showed why French rugby is so difficult to pigeon-hole. The game was played at blistering pace on a fast pitch between two teams studded with international stars. There was intensity, ferocity, and good news for Gatland in the form of Andrew Sheridan, Steffon Armitage and Jonny Wilkinson, who were key components in a rampaging 35-16 Toulon win.
Sheridan was typically powerful at the scrum, but it was his high work-rate and effectiveness at making hard yards around the breakdown that stood out. The Wallaby wrecker is back to his best, and on current evidence it would be a travesty if a Lions Test prop of his calibre was overlooked.
Steffon Armitage is criticised for playing in bursts, and not being as effective in a sustained high-tempo game as an international openside needs to be. He contradicted that assumption against Toulouse, and was always in the thick of the action, foraging, tackling or carrying. The carrying part included tracking a Mathieu Bastareaud line-break and coming up on his outside shoulder to finish the move with a turbo-charged burst for the line from the edge of the Toulouse 22. As for Wilkinson, he is back to what he does best. He racks up the points, punishing mistakes and ratcheting-up the pressure on the opposition with drop-goals and an array of tactical kicking. His distribution is good, he tackles like a Test flanker, and the bonus is that his rugby-obsessive tendencies are in check, and he looks relaxed.
Lee Byrne, who is in excellent form for Clermont, is another Test Lion who could give the 2013 squad a boost with his counter-attacking strength. Byrne's Wagga-Wagga born team-mate Nathan Hines is long in the tooth, and more of an outside chance, but the Clermont lock's tooth remains surprisingly sharp.
As for Lions bolters at the other end of the age-scale, Gatland must be tempted to do what Stuart Lancaster didn't, and give quick movers like Christian Wade and Jonny May a chance to cut loose. The Ospreys flyer Eli Walker is in the same category. Gatland will also be encouraged by the return to club action of Dan Lydiate and Paul O'Connell after long lay-offs, as well as Tom Croft's return to international action.
If Gatland looks outside the attrition of the Six Nations, the 2013 Lions could grow wings – not to mention some serious challengers to the Six Nations contingent at prop, lock, flanker, fly-half and full-back.