Nick Cain looks at the likely composition of Stuart Lancaster’s World Cup squad

There's a spaghetti of conflicting views surrounding the long-squad of around 50 players – initially billed as 45 – that Stuart Lancaster is expected to select for his World Cup training camp on Tuesday. Some of this will centre on the tidal wave effect from the omission of Manu Tuilagi following an assault charge which makes his decision to jump into Auckland harbour almost four years ago look like a ripple.
However, because Tuilagi was already damaged due to a groin injury and might not have been fit in time for England's warm-up internationals against France and Ireland, it is not as if he was a certainty. Furthermore, the opportunity to forge an effective midfield with the Samoan-born powerhouse slotting in between George Ford and Jonathan Joseph would always have been a race against time.
But the most contentious selection issue, and the most harmful to England's cause,  is Lancaster's decision to exclude Steffon Armitage and  Nick Abendanon, with the Toulon openside and Clermont full-back not considered because they are playing in France rather than the Premiership.
There is a bank of evidence from England's recent encounters with New Zealand, South Africa and Ireland to suggest that they are underpowered by comparison with the top three sides.  There is no question that with Tuilagi's physical presence removed they have lost crucial tonnage, and therefore that the barrelling power around the fringes offered by Armitage could have been a very useful addition.
Even more significant are Armitage's unrivalled statistics as the most successful breakdown operator in the European Champions Cup. His tally of 19 turn-overs in this season's tournament makes his absence even more vexing in the light of England's imminent assignment with pool rivals Australia and Wales, who boast four world-class opensides between them.
Wales coach Warren Gatland and his Wallaby counterpart Michael Cheika will be rubbing their hands with glee at the thought that Sam Warburton and Justin Tipuric (for the Welsh) and Michael Hooper, David Pocock (for the Aussies) will enjoy a head start at the breakdown.
However, at least Lancaster's decision to stick with the status quo highlights one factor on which most England watchers can agree. Namely, that if England are to win the 2015 World Cup without two of Europe's outstanding players, they are going to have to make a quantum leap by going from a side that has been unable to win a Six Nations title in four attempts under Lancaster, to being crowned world champions.
The leap we are looking at is daunting because it involves England playing consistently to the standard they reached in the win over New Zealand at Twickenham in 2012. It was a game notable not just for Tuilagi's line-breaking heroics, but for a collective effort at the breakdown which involved every Red Rose player competing with an intensity which they have not been able to match since.
Given the magnitude of the task that confronts Lancaster's squad without having a specialist No.7 to lean on, it is simply non-negotiable that they rediscover that collective accuracy and passion — and summon it for the entire tournament.
This means that an England squad which again finished second in the Six Nations, and whose senior players have argued vehemently against the inclusion of French-based players like Armitage and Abendanon, will have to exceed by far anything they have done in the period since Lancaster took charge.
England's best consecutive winning run to date is four, and although achieved home and away, it is tempered by Six Nations tail-enders Italy or Scotland – or both – being on the itinerary. Their home record is also nothing to shout about. Although they did manage six home wins in the 2012-13 season (New Zealand, Scotland, France, Italy, Australia, Argentina), and another five this season (Samoa, Australia, Italy, Scotland, France) they do not equate even closely in terms of pressure to the six they will have to win on successive weekends to claim the world title.
The good news for most of the players in and around the England and Saxons squads for the last couple of seasons is that they will have a chance to make their case before the squad is trimmed down to 31 in August. That is because it is likely the squad will be extended to 50 to accommodate those who are injured but on the mend – with Joe Marler, Henry Thomas, Geoff Parling, Tom Croft, Ben Foden, Joe Simpson and Ben Morgan among them – in a split (including injured players) which could include as many as 26 forwards and 24 backs.
A keen area of contention among the forwards will be at hooker where Jamie George and Luke Cowan-Dickie will be pushing Rob Webber hard for the third slot behind Tom Youngs and Dylan

Hartley. However, the England coaches tend to favour incumbents and Webber, who has not let them down, is likely to stay.
At loose-head Mako Vunipola is challenging Marler for pole position, with Alex Corbisiero having to make headway after a mixed season. Although the claims that England are the envy of the world at tight-head are overblown, Dan Cole and David Wilson are not shifted easily, and nor is Kieran Brookes, while Henry Thomas has made spectacular gains under the tutelage of Neale Hatley at Bath. However, when it comes to the cull, Brookes ability to play either side of the scrum should count in his favour.
Lancaster and his forwards coach, Graham Rowntree, are also blessed with a wide range of options in the second row. The only reservation is that none of them, with the exception of a full-tilt Courtney Lawes, is yet in the world-class territory inhabited by the All Black pairing of Brodie Retallick and Sam Whitelock.
Joe Launchbury has all the footballing skills but not the defensive crunch, while Dave Attwood has the size and power but sometimes loses his bearings. George Kruis and Graham Kitchener have the work-rate but not the authority (yet), while Parling's attributes do not include having the heavyweight components to be a foil for Lawes.
However, in Ed Slater and Maro Itoje, England have two back five forwards who are capable of challenging the established order at the World Cup. Slater, like Launchbury, is only just back from injury, but what he brings is a ruggedness, strength and effectiveness as a hard-yards carrier that few of his contemporaries can match.
Itoje is another who has been a revelation. Having been hugely impressive in captaining England U20s to the Junior World Championship title last summer he has made rapid gains, forcing his way into the Saracens starting line-up. He brings a dynamic power that forces turn-overs at the breakdown and scatters defenders when he's on the charge.
The advantages that Itoje and Slater bring could be the missing pieces to Rowntree's forward jigsaw. Both men are line-out options, and are equally effective at lock or blindside flanker. They also have the power and size that is essential against the big beasts that the Southern Hemisphere nations – and Ireland and France – will bring to the field.
The permutations are intriguing, because wherever you introduce them the combinations have symmetry in terms of balancing athleticism with power.
Pair Launchbury and Lawes at lock, with Slater or Itoje at blindside and there is in the immediate sense of a unit with the right ballast.
Alternatively, Slater could join Attwood to form a heavy-duty second row, with Lawes going to 6, and Itoje providing impact off the bench.
Their arrival would have the added benefit of increasing competition in the back row, where Tom Wood and James Haskell head the pecking order but have yet to make an indelible mark at blindside. Whether Exeter's Dave Ewers makes the squad will depend on whether Lancaster, Rowntree and Andy Farrell see Sam Burgess as a blindside or an inside-centre.
Many argue that it should be neither, because he has simply not played enough Rugby Union to make the step up to international level. Strategic leaks from the RFU suggest that because of his versatility and pedigree the Bath Rugby League star will be in the squad. There will inevitably be suggestions that he is keeping a more deserving player out of the squad – and Ewers could be a case in point. Calum Clark is another potential victim.

With Armitage out of the way the coast is clear for Chris Robshaw at No.7, and I would expect Matt Kvesic to be named as the England captain's understudy despite his recent three week suspension. Meanwhile, the resurgent Thomas Wadrom should tuck in behind Billy Vunipola and Nick Easter in the No.8 queue pending Morgan's return.
After finishing the Six Nations on a high note Ben Youngs heads the scrum-half listings, with Richard Wigglesworth and Danny Care also in the chase. Joe Simpson definitely deserves to join them after an outstanding season for Wasps, pending recovery from a leg injury.
George Ford is out on his own at fly-half but there is varied back-up from Owen Farrell and Danny Cipriani – and with Exeter's rising son Henry Slade also able to cover 10,12, and 13, Northampton's Stephen Myler looks likely to miss out.
The competition at centre is already fierce, and it is intensifying despite Tuilagi's ban.  Expect to see Brad Barritt, Kyle Eastmond and Billy Twelvetrees in the mix at inside-centre, with Jonathan Joseph, Slade and Luther Burrell at outside-centre. The latter's greater physicality and experience should get him the nod over the smaller Elliott Daly.
The cocktail in the back three looks reasonably potent, with Jack Nowell and Marland Yarde providing the muscle and bustle and Anthony Watson, Jonny May and Christian Wade the speed and agility. That leaves either Chris Ashton, David Strettle or Semesa Rokoduguni to claim the final slot, and neither Saracens wing can be confident given that they haven't had a look-in all season despite playing well.
Mike Brown remains the first name on the full-back list, and Alex Goode the second, but it would be a reward for talent as well as consistency if Chris Pennell was included. The Worcester stalwart can also play outside-centre or wing, and has the sort of versatility that is invaluable in tournament conditions.
However, having selected so many players, and given them hope, it is now incumbent on Lancaster to ensure that it is not false. There has to be genuine competition for places ahead of the reduction to 31 in August.
Otherwise, the long-squad will have been little more than a PR exercise to manage expectations and keep 20 or so players, who are destined to be deeply disappointed, onside.
n The selection process was due to start against the Barbarians on the last day of May but this is now likely to be an England U23 side, drawn from promising players in the Premiership.
Lancaster's probable 51-man long-squad
Injured but included: Henry Thomas, Joe Marler, Ben Morgan, Geoff Parling, Tom Croft, Ben Foden, Joe Simpson.
Props
Looseheads: M Vunipola, Corbisiero,  Mullan;
Tightheads: Cole, Wilson, Brookes.
Hookers: Hartley, T Youngs, Webber, George.
Locks: Lawes, Launchbury, Slater, Kruis, Attwood, Kitchener.
Back Row
Blindsides: Wood, Haskell, Itoje, Burgess.
Opensides: Robshaw, Kvesic.
No.8:  B Vunipola, Waldrom, Easter.
Scrum-halves: B Youngs, Wigglesworth, Care.
Fly-halves: Ford, Farrell, Cipriani.
Inside-centres: Barritt, Eastmond, Twelvetrees.
Outside-centres: Joseph, Burrell, Slade.
Wings: Nowell, Watson, May, Yarde, Wade, Ashton.
Full-backs: Brown, Goode, Pennell.
Nick Cain changes
Loosehead: Auterac for Mullan.
Hooker: Batty for Webber.
Blindside: Ewers for Burgess.
Openside: Clifford (added).
Centre: Daly for Twelvetrees.