Jeremy Guscott: Manu Tuilagi and Niki Goneva give Leicester Tigers real title potential

You have to admire Saracens. They have lost only two games this season, and one more victory will see them home and hosed. By that I mean a home semi-final, and no one will fancy their chances against a very solid side competing well on all fronts.
They appear to have planned, organised and executed a strategy over the course of this campaign which has brought them to the right place at the right time. We have also seen them score more tries than anyone in the Premiership – and more than anyone outside the club expected. In the past they had squeezed, kicked, chased, defended, and then relied on Owen Farrell to kick the points, but that has changed.
Saracens have recognised that if you truly want to make your mark then you make sure you score more tries in more games than your opponents. That is when you become a very hard side to beat – and Saracens deserve praise for having made that transition since Northampton Saints beat them in last season's semi final play-off at Allianz Park.
Their victory over Bath at The Rec at the end of February was not just clinical, it was surgical. The way they isolated George Ford was so precise, and overall their execution had to be applauded. That trip to New York is also an indicator that they have really planned this season meticulously, and that the plan is working.
At this stage last season Saracens had the disappointment of being knocked out in the semi-final stage of both the Premiership and the Heineken Cup. They have gone away and thought about it, and done something about it.
In the Premiership you would back them to at least make the final, although the Heineken Cup semi-final against Clermont is more difficult to call.
Northampton had a fantastic start to the season, and at first it looked like a two horse race between them and Saracens, although now there is the threat of Leicester's late run spoiling that party despite their thrilling defeat to Harlequins on Friday night.
I still believe that, with two home games before the play-offs, the Saints will get a home semi-final – and that's incredibly important. You want that advantage and familiarity in a knockout game so that you are on your toes and ready to play the game of your life.
It appears likely that Northampton could meet Leicester in the semi-final, even though at this stage the players cannot start thinking about matches that far ahead. Instead, they have to concentrate on getting the right results over the next two rounds. Whoever does that will have the advantage of being able to rest key players and rotate their squads for the final round before the play-offs.
If the Tigers go to Franklin's Gardens in the semi-final they will travel with confidence, knowing they are capable of winning because they have done so very recently. And, if Leicester get to the final, then you have to fancy them to have a good chance of winning it. They have players coming back from injury who are fresh, and Manu Tuilagi and Vereniki Goneva give them strike runners who could have a huge influence. Brad Barritt would have no problem tackling them, but everyone else would.
As well as Saracens have done, if they faced Leicester in the final that would be a game and a half.
Bath are not quite ready for a Premiership final. When they went to Saints they got muscled out of it after a good start, and Saracens did a number on them on their own ground. They were also unable to close out a win over an injury-hit Leicester at Welford Road, drawing instead.
However, Saracens apart, Bath are the most improved side in the Premiership, and they fully deserve to be in play-off contention. They have a good pack – but they also have shortcomings. While the backs are talented and quick they lack the experience and leadership to really make good teams pay. Where Saracens have a real standout backline leader like Barritt, and Northampton have Stephen Myler and Leicester Anthony Allen, Bath lack a mature been-there-and-done-it general.
On top of that, Bath have not gone well in the last two rounds, losing to Sale at The Rec and then squeezing home after a shabby away performance against Gloucester. There is a sense that the top sides have worked them out. While their forwards can bulldoze many of the mid-table to lower sides they are not able to do it against the best sides, like Saracens, Northampton and Leicester.
With Harlequins beating Leicester at The Stoop on Friday night they have kept the pressure on Bath, and nothing is impossible from a side with that ability. Bath are in the stronger position but Quins are on a roll, and if they can win away at Exeter with a bonus point, and Bath lose at home to Northampton, then that fourth play-off place could all come down to the final round when Bath have to travel to The Stoop.
This is a strong league, with only one team adrift – but even Worcester have picked up seven losing bonus points. I like the play-off format. It makes the end of the season interesting with all the speculation that comes into play.
It is a change which benefits the game because it keeps supporters, sponsors and broadcasters engaged right through to the finish.