Jeremy Guscott previews the 2013-2014 Aviva Premiership season

A new season approaches and I'm really looking forward to a great fight to see who becomes Champions and who avoids relegation. At the top end I don't feel that the first four of last season will have many challengers, and Sarries, Tigers, Quins and Saints all look well prepared to fight it out again.
There are as always some variables that will come into play. How teams cope with injuries and players leaving for international duties, plus the pressure of being involved with whatever is at stake for each particular club. It shouldn't be anything out of the blue, but no matter how long you've been doing the job, every season is a little bit different.
Saracens have a system and are building on their wolf pack culture, which suggests more hunting of tackles, rather than scoring of tries. I admire this team's method and application, and the unwaveringly direct approach that has served them well enough domestically.
However, I still believe that to win in Europe, Saracens need to step outside their comfort zone, take more risks and score more tries from beyond the red zone.
Billy Vunipola is a very exciting player and will certainly add an attacking spark. If this side can create and score more tries I think they will win the Premiership, but it's a big ask for Sarries because they weren't in the top six of highest try scoring teams last season.
Leicester have a very good basic system of playing, backed up by the very best culture. It runs throughout every part of the club and has been in existence for years. This club is the Manchester United of English rugby, but without so many Premiership wins.
Well done for claiming the Premiership title last season, when Tigers proved you don't always have to have the best defence in the league to be champions — and long may that continue. But this huge club has bigger fish to fry, and Europe has to be the target. However, with Benetton Treviso, Montpellier and Ulster it won't be a pushover to qualify for the last eight.
I will be interested to see how Toby Flood goes as captain. He's been at Welford Road that long it should be like clockwork, very straight forward.
I applaud Harlequins, a team who have made a conscious decision to play the game differently than most and have had the balls to stick at it. Season 2011/12 was the big title-winning breakthrough for Quins, but last season was a tad too much given that they were every other team's target.
Quins looked tired last season, like a ship that had been battered sailing around Cape Horn. O'Shea has to keep his team fresh, not just physically but mentally; the mind tiredness can be more damaging than the physical.
Everyone wants to beat the champions, so it became a season of getting used to that, as well as dealing with the huge expectation from within.
O'Shea is an intelligent operator and I'm sure he will have learnt so much from last season and made a plan to cope with the variables that Europe, international calls, injuries etc. bring.
A player who has impressed me is Ben Botica, who has proven a more than accomplished challenger to the 10 spot that Nick Evans has had for what seems forever. He will need more games to keep him at the club. Overall, there's not a lot separating Quins from Tigers, Sarries and Saints, and its generally who has prepared better who wins.

Northampton Saints nearly pulled off an epic by winning the Premiership final after finishing fourth in the regular season, but after having Dylan Hartley sent off it was nigh on impossible against Tigers.
The away win in the semi-final against Sarries tells us that this Saints team does have the goods to be serious challengers again. The Sarries result alone should give this team enough confidence to do so much better this season, and expectation will be high with the arrival of George North.
I hope it goes well for the young superstar, because you want to see good players play as well as they can. North has to settle quickly and get involved in everything he can without getting mentally tired. It's all new for him, but this young man is gifted and it will be a waste if his talents aren't used. I hope he stays injury free and plays a lot of games for Saints — the crowd will love him there so long as he puts in his shift and doesn't just play for Wales.
Alex Corbisiero is another great addition, but Northampton have to keep the 2013 Lions loose-head fit to get the benefit. Elsewhere, Stephen Myler has fought off the competition at fly-half, and he must flourish and guide the team all the way.
Just below the top four will come Gloucester, Exeter and Bath, all believing this is their year to break through and gate-crash the Sarries, Tigers, Quins and Saints clique.
Bath look as though they might be assembling a good enough squad to challenge the elite. They've been piecing together a rugby club puzzle for the last couple of years and must be hoping this season they have completed a large part of it.
Off the field, apart from the stadium, they must have the best all round facilities in one place available for training a professional rugby team. However, the club has lacked any real identity, and over several seasons under different coaches they have got close, but not over the line.
Last season was very defensive because that's the starting point for most teams under new management, and Bath finished joint second in least tries conceded last season. Gary Gold and his team of coaches have promised a bolder more attacking approach this season, which in the modern era of ‘winning is everything' is a brave move.
The first couple of months should provide the playing surfaces and weather conditions for head coach Mike Ford and his team to walk the walk.
A few words of warning. If the Bath squad haven't spent the last couple of months working specifically on passing, the ambitious plan will fail. If you can't execute good passing under pressure you can't expect to mount sustained attacks.
Bath have a squad that should have enough experience, and, with their new additions, not making the top six will mean another poor season.
Dave Wilson, Dave Attwood, and Francios Louw are all good leaders up front, but someone from George Ford, Tom Heathcote, Kyle Eastmond or Jonathan Joseph has to be the backline general, because without that leadership quality in midfield they will struggle.

Look out also for Anthony Watson. He's quick and talented, but he will have to learn fast to make his talents work in the Premiership.
What will make the big difference between a good season and a poor season for Bath, and the other clubs who finished anywhere from 6th to 10th in the league last season, are the head-to-heads against the top teams. Last season Bath won only 30% of games against the eventual top five
The culture at a club is so important because it sets the tone and attitude of the coaches and players that they employ. At Exeter everything seems to be in ‘sync', and that is why where other clubs that win promotion usually go straight down, they have more than survived the last three seasons.
Exeter has the respect of its peers on the field, if not the same financial share as the Premiership's founder clubs. Head coach Rob Baxter gets the very best out of his squad, and it's very much a one for all and all for one culture.
Last season Exeter changed their style from the previous season, playing with the ball in hand more. The Chiefs had the highest average of meters made in a game and were 4th in the try scoring charts.
A second consecutive term in the Heineken Cup will test their resources again, but they're a club that learns from experience and to date have adapted and improved. I don't believe the bubble is going to burst anytime soon.
At the highest level having a consistent goal-kicker is so important, and the Chiefs have better than that, with Gareth Steenson one of the best. Steenson keeps opposition defenders more honest in their own half because they know giving away a penalty is handing the Chiefs three points.  Again Exeter need a better record against the top five of last season, with a 40% win return.
Gloucester have one of the more exciting English backlines we have seen in recent years. Freddie Burns, Billy Twelvetrees, Henry Trinder, Charlie Sharples and Jonny May will make defences work exceptionally hard to keep them from scoring. These lads can't do anything without some decent ball and that's where Glos may fall down a bit against the best.
Ben Morgan, Akapusi Qera and new signing Matt Kvesic will be a match for anyone in the Premiership but the front five will need to have a breath-taking season for them to make top four spot. Glos also conceded the highest average number of turnovers per game last season. That stops momentum, so they need big improvement in that area
A 50 per cent win record against the teams that finished above them last season suggests better results are needed to make the big breakthrough. That means better mental toughness to deal with being favourites, and never thinking that just turning up will be enough to win.
Twelvetrees had a getting-to-know-you season last time, but with his upgrade to international status he could lead this talented backline so long as his feet are firmly on the ground.
I'm sure there will be massive disagreements, but the rest are going to be in a big fight to stay out of the relegation zone. Newcastle have to make playing at Kingston Park the most uncomfortable experience for visiting teams, and if they achieve that then survival might be possible. The new boys will be very much unknown, except for their coach Dean Richards, and his teams aren't to be taken lightly.
They won't be given much chance of survival but neither were Exeter three years ago. Their route for survival is for the management team Richards has put together to instil a belief and culture that keeps them up, but players like Mike Blair, Ally Hogg and Andy Saull will have to play out of their skins to pull the rest along.

I have no real idea what to expect from London Irish. The relegation battle last season should have sharpened them up, but I'm not sure they have the artillery for a mid-table finish. It still looks like they will be in a scrap with Sale, Falcons and possibly the Warriors.
Last season Irish lost a couple of coaches and they go into this season having lost a few good players this time round. Wing Marland Yarde is their standout player, but I believe he could be an outstanding outside-centre.
London Wasps lost 13 games last season, and they've got to shave that by four or five to realistically stand a chance of a top six finish — and European Cup rugby —  which is head coach Dai Young's objective. They have some good young talent in Joe Launchbury and Christian Wade, and I like the addition of Stephen Jones to the coaching set up.
Sale Sharks had a torrid Premiership experience last season and they have to start incredibly well for the doubts not to creep back in.
Worcester Warriors will be all about how Dean Ryan has done throughout the summer fine-tuning his new squad. As a TV pundit he was right up there in terms of insight and knowledge of the game, giving viewers a refreshing overview in tactics and analysis of players and teams.
Worcester have around 13 new signing for this season so they're starting pretty much from scratch. Every player has a chance to impress but it's the collective that counts, along with wins. If they want to avoid the relegation battle a good start is imperative.
How much will change in the hierarchy of the league is never certain, but what we can be sure of another action-packed season. England's summer tour of Argentina gave us a good glimpse of English talent playing in the league, and I hope they step up and produce it in the heat of the Aviva Premiership season.